The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC’s) latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report of 10 November covered futures and options positions through 7 November. In other words, it did not include trading activities in the wake of USDA’s November WASDE that was issued midday on 9 November. Based on that COT and a rough estimate of trading activity since 7 November, we estimate that noncommercials hold the following aggregated net futures and options positions in grain and soy markets: Chicago wheat - short 140,000 contracts KC wheat - short 20,000 Corn - short 230,000 Soybeans - 45,000 Soymeal - long 6,000 Soyoil - long 40,000 While it is certainly true that quite a few hedge funds and managed noncommercial mon...
What You Need to Know Today: After a period of limited activity, USDA reported a sizeable 613 KMT in soybean export sales, including 330 KMT to China and 283 KMT to unknown destinations, potentially also China. The purchases represent a meaningful pickup in demand and bring China closer to ful...
Key Takeaways: Consumer spending is a key driver of the U.S. economy, and the latest retail sales data indicate that spending remains robust despite inflation. In September, total retail and food service sales rose more than 6 percent year-over-year, with food service spending up 7 percent and...
The Trump import plan for 300,000 MT of beef supplies used for ground beef, i.e., lean trim, from September through November has, according to Secretary Brooke Rollins, brought some relief to beef prices. The Executive Order states that the Secretary of Agriculture will analyze and review the m...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.