There are many similarities between the U.S. and EU, but many differences as well. When the common currency euro was introduced in 1999, it was valued at the equivalent of $1.16. It hit a peak of €/$1.58 in 2008 but has since slid back and is currently at €/$1.07. The forecast has it rising to €/$1.11 near the end of this year and then sliding lower. The exchange rate is important, particularly for trade in higher value food products. The determinants of that rate are complex and imprecise. One factor should be core interest rates. The European Central Bank has hiked interest rates but is a full percentage point behind the U.S. federal funds rate. Just as the Federal Reserve could hike again, so could the ECB. 

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