Soybean futures gapped upward in the Sunday evening session, trading 10-12 cents higher most of the night. The March contract traded right to $10.20, which is considered major technical resistance. The driver is weather across southern Brazil and Argentina. It continues to be dry there with little apparent relief in sight through the next two weeks (see eight-14 day precipitation map below).

This weather pattern has once again resurrected talk about a La Nina. Some chatter focuses on the potential for one to develop, and others say that a La Nina is already underway with the effects now just depending on the degree or strength. Such a weather event occurs when the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) between Australia and Peru turn cooler tha...