It is becoming clearer every year that U.S. farmers might be headed towards planting just two major crops: corn and soybeans. Consider the following:

Winter wheat acres in 2017 were the smallest since USDA started keeping records in 1919. Based on current prices and returns per acre, they will be smaller again in 2018. Hard red spring wheat and durum wheat acres also continue to decline. We expect northern Plains farmers to again plant fewer acres of both crops in 2018 as there is simply no economic incentive to plant wheat of any class.

Barley acreage and production are also rapidly declining. Production is down nearly 40 percent in the past two years, and malting contracts have grown cheap with limited availability. It has beco...