USDA’s latest beef cattle supply data could be a harbinger of bearish cattle prices into the third quarter of next year.USDA released its monthly Cattle on Feed (COF) report on 21 July with a placement number that was a shocker: 1.77 million head or 116 percent of June 2016’s placements. Expectations were that placements in feed yards of 1,000 head or more capacity would be 105.9 percent of the year-ago level. Indeed, total placements in June were the highest recorded for that month in 11 years. The report had a bearish impact across the board for futures contracts as live cattle, feeder cattle and even lean hog contracts all closed lower today.For context, June had the lowest monthly placements of the past three years at 1.71 million head...
What You Need to Know Today: After a period of limited activity, USDA reported a sizeable 613 KMT in soybean export sales, including 330 KMT to China and 283 KMT to unknown destinations, potentially also China. The purchases represent a meaningful pickup in demand and bring China closer to ful...
The Trump import plan for 300,000 MT of beef supplies used for ground beef, i.e., lean trim, from September through November has, according to Secretary Brooke Rollins, brought some relief to beef prices. The Executive Order states that the Secretary of Agriculture will analyze and review the m...
Key Takeaways: Texas illustrates the assumptions underlying the 2025 FMMO reform; Idaho exposes their limitations. The Southwest order blend (roughly 27 percent Class I, 32 percent Class III and 31 percent Class IV) exposes Texas producers to every lever USDA adjusted, with a near-neutral proj...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.