In the rush of the current bear market, some are now predicting that yields may exceed USDA’s early estimates. These forecasts are met with some incredulity given how late these crops were planted. Half were planted beyond the average completion date, the most in what may be 60 years of record keeping. Genetics have certainly improved, although WPI’s Dave Juday quips that farmers did not plant seeds this soggy spring that had been crossbred with seaweed. Perdue University agronomist Bob Nielsen says, “There is NOT a strong relationship between planting date and absolute yield or departure from trend” at least in the state of Indiana. His emphasis is on the word “strong.” It is true that late planting has...