USDA will release its Cattle on Feed report tomorrow; the consensus pre-report analysts’ estimate is for the inventory of cattle on feed to be 101 percent of the prior year. This would be the sixth consecutive month that inventories were equal to or larger than the previous year. Prior to that, from September 2022 to September 2023 feedlot inventories were below year ago levels.
The analysts’ pre-report estimates have marketings at 104 percent of last year and placements at 106 percent of last year, the latter coming in a range of 103 to 109 percent of 2023. For both, note that this is a leap year with an extra day in February. Likewise for placements, feeder cattle imports are running ahead of last year.
However, as...
Macro: Trade Flows Set the Tone Persian Gulf crude flows appear to be improving, with anecdotal estimates suggesting as much as 7–8 million barrels per day may now be leaving the region — nearly double the mid-July pace. That helps explain why crude has not maintained the full geopo...
Key Takeaways: The Panama Canal traded at a record $5.3 million for a transit slot this week as line-up times extend to 17 days. The difficulties transiting the Canal are supporting the PNW/Gulf spread. Tanker freight markets remain elevated as the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz continues. I...
Key Takeaways: Ethanol margins continue to retreat from recent highs as rising costs – particularly corn and natural gas – offset gains in ethanol and DDGS values. WPI’s models expect ethanol margins to broadly follow their seasonal pattern, declining into the new year,...
