What a difference a year makes! No one will forget how out of balance cattle markets were in 2022 with margins steeply favoring the packer, while feedlots saw their margins shrink away into negative territory. In fact, it was such a factor that we suffered through a year of misguided attempts to “fix” the market with all kinds of adjustments to cattle pricing. However, in the past year, feedlot margins are up more than 1,300 percent, according to Sterling Beef Profit Tracker, going from $29.33/head in 2024 to $419.93/head last week. Last week’s highs were up from already high margins of $366.40/head the previous week and $278.73/head in mid-February. Packer margins, meanwhile, remained in the red with a -...
Beef packer margins deteriorated to $156.75/head last week, down $46.05 from the prior week as fed cattle prices strengthened while gains in the Choice cutout were comparatively modest. The Choice cutout increased...
What You Need to Know Today: Oil prices moved higher early Monday before giving back some of their gains after drone attacks forced the shutdown of Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, a critical route for bypassing constrained shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The disruption puts rou...
Key Takeaways: Expected returns to production for U.S. cow-calf producers have shifted lower from prior forecasts as cattle values fall and feed costs rise. Producer revenues are forecast 1 percent below our August outlook and will be 1.2 percent below 2025 levels. Feed costs have lessen...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.