In his book The Black Swan, author Nassim Taleb makes the argument that increasing globalization in many ways makes our economic and political systems more fragile. Essentially, as dependency on and linkages to other countries/economies grow, so do the consequences of a breakdown in one of the economic links. That theory was exemplified today by Chile’s decision to forgo hosting the November APEC summit, which has now left the U.S. and China with no place to sign a trade deal. Chile, which is experiencing massive social unrest, was the anticipated site where U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators would sign the Phase One deal. With Chile bowing out from hosting APEC, and neither the U.S. nor China likely willing to sign a Phase One deal i...
What You Need to Know Today: Commodities were mostly lower across the board today after yesterday’s Federal Reserve meeting hinted at a potential interest rate hike later in 2026. The dollar index reached its highest level in over a year, and a strong dollar makes U.S. agricultural expor...
Tomorrow is the Juneteenth federal holiday, and the USDA, along with the rest of the federal government and the CME, will be closed, so the monthly Cattle on Feed report was released a day early. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity on 1 June amounted...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.