These are lower volume sessions with dropping open interest, indicating the shine is off on the bull market but fundamentals remain firm. The combination of winterkill, drought and continued strong demand hang over a market that sold off corn and soybeans while correcting on wheat. USDA’s Outlook Forum provides grist for discussion though its numbers are highly speculative at this juncture. For the 2021/22 crops, USDA’s forecast came in a half million acres larger than expected for soybeans, a million acres less on corn, and right on the money for wheat. The combined predicted area planted to corn and soybeans is a record 182 million acres (73.65 million hectares), but after the two previous years had planting problems and the...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.