Key Market Insights
Markets aren’t trading fundamentals right now—they’re pricing risk. The Middle East remains the center of gravity, and the latest developments point to a situation that is not escalating—but not resolving either. That’s a difficult environment for markets to gain conviction. The U.S. has indefinitely extended its ceasefire with Iran, but peace talks remain on hold. At the same time, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively restricted, with reports of ships coming under fire and Iranian tankers going dark to bypass enforcement. Add in rising tensions with China after the U.S. flagged a “gift” shipment to Iran, and it’s clear this situation is far from stable—even if a...
Macro: Relief Meets Reality July’s CPI report matched expectations. Headline inflation eased to 3.4 percent year over year, while core inflation declined to 2.5 percent. On a monthly basis, headline CPI rose 0.1 percent and core increased 0.2 percent. Equities and the U.S. dollar traded h...
Key Takeaways: Corn yield came in below expectations at 180.7 bushels per acre, validating WPI’s view that last year’s exceptional yield may have anchored analyst estimates higher. Despite slightly higher production for corn, stronger export projections tightened the balance sheet,...
