The CBOT markets were surprisingly insulated from a jump in crude oil that started the week. Crude oil futures rallied to $115/brl - their highest levels since the earliest days of the U.S.-Iran war - on rhetoric from the White House that signaled an escalation in the conflict. While the oil headlines would have been massively supportive for CBOT ag trade just a few weeks ago, traders seem to have moved on from these knee-jerk reactions. Now, traders in the ag space are more focused on the planting and acreage outlook for 2026, neither of which are terribly bullish for U.S. interests. Additionally, there seems to have been a realization that the long-run correlations between crude oil and corn or other ags are relatively weak and that fuel...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.