USDA surprised the market with bullish Grain Stocks and Acreage reports that sent futures sharply higher by Wednesday’s close. Grain stocks were well below pre-report expectations and analysts similarly over estimated U.S. corn and soybean acres. The bottom-line from the reports is that the U.S. grain supply pipeline is low right now and will remain so unless the U.S. summer growing season features exceptionally beneficial weather. It’s hard to say whether the corn or soybean acre figure was the bigger surprise. Compared to pre-report estimates, soybean acres were a bigger “miss” than corn (the average soybean estimate was 3 percent above USDA’s actual versus 1 percent for corn), but corn estimates had a...
What You Need to Know Today: Russia rejected calls for a ceasefire in the Black Sea, including a proposal to halt attacks on civilian shipping that could help restore grain flows from Ukrainian ports. Tyson Foods announced plans to permanently close its Joslin, Illinois, beef processing facili...
The big news in the cattle markets yesterday was Tyson Foods’ move to close two more beef plants. One of them, the Joslin, Illinois, plant was shuttered immediately after the announcement. The other, in Eagle Mountain, Utah, is a case-ready plant that does not slaughter cattle. Tyson also...
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday. In July, the CPI rose 0.1 percent, seasonally adjusted, and rose 3.4 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. The index for all items less food and energy, or the “core” infla...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.