USDA reports always keep you up at night and yesterday's numbers were no different. Here are a few items worth noting:

U.S. hard red winter wheat (HRW) production actually increased when many crop people on the ground who are following the harvest strongly believe the crop will be closer to 700 million bushels than to the 791 reported by USDA/NASS yesterday. That is not a trivial difference. One source told me he believes that HRW production in Kansas and Oklahoma is overstated by 20 percent.

HRW basis levels are sky high at the end of harvest. Does that suggest yields were good?

Many elevators/silos in the drier 50 percent of the HRW region will handle no more than 20 percent of a normal harvest volume. China's wheat...