The initial (and minimum) revenue insurance price for the 2019 U.S. winter wheat crop has now been determined. It is based on the daily average of the July 2019 Chicago and KC wheat futures between 15 August and 15 September. The price for hard red winter wheat is $5.74 versus last year’s initial price of $4.87, and the soft red winter wheat price will be $5.72 against $5.02 a year ago. This is a significant increase in the price guarantee from last year, but it is still disappointing because wheat futures declined sharply during the 30-day price calculation period (see the KC July 2019 chart below).

The major key to the wheat market’s price action continues to be Russia’s wheat export pace and whether the governm...