The Market The market is at the seasonal turning point. Brazilian soybean basis has turned negative relative to Chicago. March soymeal hit a contract high this week of $508.20/ST, the highest for the spot month contract since 2014. All 2022/23 soymeal contracts hit record highs, then reversed. The surge was prompted by heavy fund buying but it also signals the end of the bull run as Brazil takes over the export market. Brazilian soybean exports are up 362 percent in early February. The result for the week – March soybeans fell 0.8 percent, meal went down 1.8 percent, but soyoil was pulled higher by other oils and gained 2.5 percent.

It isn’t all singing the blues. The IGC lowered its estimate of global soybean production by...