The Malaysian Palm Oil Board’s (MPOB’s) monthly report indicated that stocks rose in June following contra-seasonal decreases over the last five months. The marginal 0.8 percent growth in stocks surprised the market, which was expecting a 1.2 percent decline in month-ending inventories. The increase lifted stocks to their highest level since March and was driven by a larger-than-expected drop in exports, which more than offset a drop in production.

Production fell for the second straight month at a time when it is typically rising, down 12.6 percent from May but slightly above the 11.1 percent reduction expected by the market, and the daily output was below 45 MT for the first time since 2007. It is expected to bounce back in...