U.S. spring planting conditions were sub-optimal, and the guessing involved an expected shift toward farmers uniquely sowing more soybeans than corn. That did not happen, though it was close. There has been a presumption of higher prevented planting acres all season, and that guess has been true, though not as shown by history. Using historical averages to estimate prevented planting acres has been frustrated by more frequent changes in insured coverage in recent years. USDA’s Risk Management Agency has tweaked everything from planting history to plant by dates and even notification requirements. In the agency’s defense, the goal is to avoid moral hazard. Insurance is to cover unexpected losses, not to drive planting decisions...
What You Need to Know Today: Commodities were mostly lower across the board today after yesterday’s Federal Reserve meeting hinted at a potential interest rate hike later in 2026. The dollar index reached its highest level in over a year, and a strong dollar makes U.S. agricultural expor...
Tomorrow is the Juneteenth federal holiday, and the USDA, along with the rest of the federal government and the CME, will be closed, so the monthly Cattle on Feed report was released a day early. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity on 1 June amounted...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.