World Perspectives

Q1 GDP Comes in Low, Interest Rate Expected to Stay High

The Q1 2024 GDP was 1.6 percent, well below the pre-report consensus expectation of 2.4 percent, and down from 3.1 percent in Q1 2023 and 3.4 percent in Q4 2023. That rate was the slowest in almost two years, dating back to Q2 2022.  Recall that in the 2 February Ag Perspectives report on Q4 2023 GDP (which came in higher than expected), WPI noted two factors supporting the bump in late 2023 GDP which were at risk of becoming a drag on GDP this year.  … government purchases at both the federal and state level were up in Q4, but with ongoing government budgetary pressures that could change. Another boost to the GDP was the increase in private inventories in Q4, but will businesses see the need to continue to build invento...

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feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.175/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close.  Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.4075/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close.  Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2475/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close.  Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $271.1/short ton, up $0.2 from y...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Trade Deals, Emerging Dryness Spark CBOT Short Covering

Traders seemed content to take short risk off the table heading into the weekend with USDA’s June Acreage and Grain Stocks reports due out Monday. Funds in particular are comfortable with positions ahead of these reports and saw little reason to push markets further into oversold territor...

Trade Negotiation Update; Miscellaneous

Trade Negotiation Update There were no shortages of eye-opening news reports this week and the notable one on trade late today was President Trump’s announcement that he is ending trade negotiations with Canada. Ottawa’s decision to impose a retroactive digital services tax on Ameri...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.175/bushel, up $0.08 from yesterday's close.  Sep 25 Wheat closed at $5.4075/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close.  Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2475/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close.  Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $271.1/short ton, up $0.2 from y...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Trade Deals, Emerging Dryness Spark CBOT Short Covering

Traders seemed content to take short risk off the table heading into the weekend with USDA’s June Acreage and Grain Stocks reports due out Monday. Funds in particular are comfortable with positions ahead of these reports and saw little reason to push markets further into oversold territor...

Trade Negotiation Update; Miscellaneous

Trade Negotiation Update There were no shortages of eye-opening news reports this week and the notable one on trade late today was President Trump’s announcement that he is ending trade negotiations with Canada. Ottawa’s decision to impose a retroactive digital services tax on Ameri...

Input Costs Forecast to Rise, Led by Fertilizer

After rising sharply in 2022, input costs remain stubbornly high yet today. At the same time, the prices received for major crops like corn, soybeans and wheat have fallen by as much as 30 percent over the same period.   In response to these economic headwinds, Congress stepped up thr...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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