The second quarter (April-May-June) initial Gross Domestic Product report will be out 31 July. The US economy grew at 1.1 percent in the fourth quarter of last year and 1.8 percent the first quarter of this year. Pre-report estimates are starting to trickle out in the news with the latest from Morgan Stanley pegging economic growth at 0.3 percent. Below is our SWAG and we're a bit more bullish.There are four basic components of GDP calculation: consumption, investment, government spending, and net trade. Simply put, that formula is: C+I+G+ (X-M) pro-rated for the percent each category contributes.

C = Personal consumption and expenditures are roughly 70 percent of GDP (non-durable goods which include food and fuel are about 25-30 percent...