China’s economic growth and now the trade war have rewritten the demand scenario much as the Black Sea region has rewritten the supply side. The Russians have prided themselves on the latter, and a new announcement that at first sounds like a doubling down is a reasonable ambition after further review. The Russian agriculture ministry announced a “proposed” $70 billion investment plan that would boost its grain production to as high as 150.3 MMT by 2035 in an "optimistic scenario." The recent OECD/FAO 10-year forecast predicts surplus crops and low prices, which makes the Russian plan appear threatening on its surface. However, based on trend line growth, the Russians should meet their target and could do so earlier than...
What You Need to Know Today: Commodities were mostly lower across the board today after yesterday’s Federal Reserve meeting hinted at a potential interest rate hike later in 2026. The dollar index reached its highest level in over a year, and a strong dollar makes U.S. agricultural expor...
Tomorrow is the Juneteenth federal holiday, and the USDA, along with the rest of the federal government and the CME, will be closed, so the monthly Cattle on Feed report was released a day early. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity on 1 June amounted...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.