In the latest sequence of WPI’s weekly Smile! report, the most notable features are decreasing expectations for volatility in crops and a huge bearish bet in Live Cattle. For background on the methodology used in this analysis, check out this article. Again, the goal of this weekly publication is to give you a quick view of how the market perceives price risk over the near term. We also include last week’s charts, so you can see how the risk has shifted week-to-week. Here are this week’s charts: Corn Corn futures volatility is forecast to decrease into October, according to the options market. The IV curve for October options on December futures is flatter than last week’s curve (which depicted Septemb...
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What You Need to Know Today: Commodities were mostly lower across the board today after yesterday’s Federal Reserve meeting hinted at a potential interest rate hike later in 2026. The dollar index reached its highest level in over a year, and a strong dollar makes U.S. agricultural expor...
Tomorrow is the Juneteenth federal holiday, and the USDA, along with the rest of the federal government and the CME, will be closed, so the monthly Cattle on Feed report was released a day early. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity on 1 June amounted...