Stats Canada released their production estimates today which were considered slightly bullish. All of the estimates came in well below the average trade guess and in some cases, like durum, the number was significantly lower than expected. Much of western Canada experienced a hot and dry summer that adversely affected crop production to a greater degree than expected. Here are the numbers:

The all-wheat production number is 3.5 MMT below the USDA’s August estimate. It will further pressure on declining world wheat supplies, despite the USDA’s slowness to reduce their estimate of world wheat production. USDA’s production estimates for Russia, the EU, Australia, and China are well above those of most analytical groups or...