USDA’s forecast for U.S. corn use in 2020/21 may be as over-optimistic as its prediction for 2019/20 corn exports, but at this juncture prices have not worked as low as WPI is thinking they should go. In relative terms, the 2020/21 stocks to use ratio is well below levels experienced in the mid-1980’s and no one wants to relive those days. They required the introduction of supply controls and involved a lot of bankruptcies. More instructive from the historical perspective is that large ending stocks eventually decline but sharp drops are not the norm. The 70 percent drop between 1982/83 and 1983/84 was due to one of the most severe droughts of the century and not because of a miraculous burst in demand. This may not even...
What You Need to Know Today: Commodities were mostly lower across the board today after yesterday’s Federal Reserve meeting hinted at a potential interest rate hike later in 2026. The dollar index reached its highest level in over a year, and a strong dollar makes U.S. agricultural expor...
Tomorrow is the Juneteenth federal holiday, and the USDA, along with the rest of the federal government and the CME, will be closed, so the monthly Cattle on Feed report was released a day early. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity on 1 June amounted...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.