Live cattle futures dropped like a rock through early June but may have overshot the fair value of the underlying commodity. This spring, large fed cattle supplies allowed packers to reduce offer prices despite robust beef demand and excellent slaughter margins. Outside the cash cattle market, however, a significant portion of the futures sell-off was driven by managed money funds exiting a massive long position. That liquidation rapidly pushed futures prices lower and may have created opportunities for cattle market bulls given changes in key fundamental trends. Heifer Slaughter Beef production is steady YTD despite a 1.6 percent increase in fed cattle slaughter. That dynamic has occurred because of changes in the share of steers...
What You Need to Know Today: Commodities were mostly lower across the board today after yesterday’s Federal Reserve meeting hinted at a potential interest rate hike later in 2026. The dollar index reached its highest level in over a year, and a strong dollar makes U.S. agricultural expor...
Tomorrow is the Juneteenth federal holiday, and the USDA, along with the rest of the federal government and the CME, will be closed, so the monthly Cattle on Feed report was released a day early. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity on 1 June amounted...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.