Key Takeaways:

The United States has steadily lost global wheat export market share since the 1970s, falling from the world's leading exporter to a projected fifth place in 2026/27. The rapid expansion of Black Sea wheat exports, driven by improved productivity and export infrastructure, has reshaped global trade and intensified competition for U.S. wheat. U.S. wheat acreage has declined by more than half since its 1981 peak as producers have increasingly shifted toward more profitable crops, particularly corn and soybeans. Differences in wheat quality and end-use requirements allow U.S. exporters to remain competitive in certain markets, particularly Asia, even when American wheat is not the lowest-cost option. Transportation costs also p...