The previous early look at potential U.S. 2018 wheat production (see Ag Perspectives, 9 March), using the table below, was before last month’s release of the USDA planting intentions estimates.

WPI has no reason today to change its estimate of the potential 2018 hard red winter wheat crop, reduced to 625 million bushels from 750 million bushels in 2017. In fact, there are other estimates now that are similar. We also continue project total U.S. wheat production at 1.650 billion bushels versus USDA’s February Outlook forecast of 1.840 billion bushels. Following are the reasons why:

It still hasn’t rained across most of the key hard red winter wheat production region of the southern Plains. This crop has also suffered...