The smallest HRW production number going all the way back more than 45 years was 620 million bushels in 2002, although It's not likely we can see a disaster of this magnitude.We wrote back on 7 February about the worsening conditions across the U.S. HRW wheat belt in the U.S. Wheat prices had crashed over $1.00/bushel ($35-40/MT). We alerted our readers to the potential decrease for HRW production based on two factors:

USDA's winter wheat planting estimate showed smaller planted acreage than expected. It had been very dry and very cold since the crop was planted the previous fall.

It was, of course, too early to know how the spring season would play out from a weather perspective. The crop still had plenty of time for rains to improv...