The USDA’s July WASDE was, as has been widely reported now, bearish new crop soybeans with a 52.0-BPA national yield and 4.3-Bbu crop projected. Since then, however, the soybean market has expressed concern over the recent shift in weather forecasts to feature hot, dry conditions for the Midwest into August. That has traders beginning to doubt the ability of this year’s crop to meet the July WASDE projection, which would tie the existing record high (set in 2016/17). Given these growing doubts, it seems prudent to examine what the U.S. soybean balance sheet and farm prices would look like under high- and low-yield scenarios. Yield Expectations Early-season crop conditions ratings have a very poor correlation to final yie...
What You Need to Know Today: Russia rejected calls for a ceasefire in the Black Sea, including a proposal to halt attacks on civilian shipping that could help restore grain flows from Ukrainian ports. Tyson Foods announced plans to permanently close its Joslin, Illinois, beef processing facili...
The big news in the cattle markets yesterday was Tyson Foods’ move to close two more beef plants. One of them, the Joslin, Illinois, plant was shuttered immediately after the announcement. The other, in Eagle Mountain, Utah, is a case-ready plant that does not slaughter cattle. Tyson also...
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday. In July, the CPI rose 0.1 percent, seasonally adjusted, and rose 3.4 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. The index for all items less food and energy, or the “core” infla...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.