USDA's Report Poltergeist First, it should be emphasized that USDA is as frustrated as the trade over the increased variance since 2007 in the trade's pre-report estimate from the actual and eventual official reportage by NASS and the World Agricultural Outlook Board. In fact, the department has hired three top-notch academics to study and help identify the source of the problem. This is not an issue with yield estimates, which have actually become more accurate for corn in the September and October reports, or for production estimates. The problem is heavily weighted on the quarterly stocks estimates.It should be emphasized that USDA's sampling sizes are large and the response rates by commercial stockholding enterprises are impressiv...