U.S. beef exports hit record levels in 2018. However, tariffs reduced pork shipments, driving down values. These global demand dynamics are reflected in the domestic market. There they have supported the retail price of all fresh beef, which was up 3.1 percent in January versus the same month in 2018, while at the same time pressuring pork prices to drop 24 percent. Meanwhile, the producer share of the increasing retail beef value expanded over the second half of 2018 as that share of retail pork value declined.

Wholesale pork prices still remain under pressure. This week the hog carcass cutout value dropped to $63.88/cwt, the lowest level in six years, while the beef cutout has been on a bullish trend.

The cattle sector still faces a...