USDA’s October WASDE reduced 2022/23 U.S. wheat production based by 133 million bushels to 1,650 million. However, first quarter total disappearance is the lowest since 1983/84 - wheat exports are lowered 50 million bushels to 775 million. This would be the lowest U.S. wheat exports since 1971/72. The result is that U.S. ending stocks are projected to be 576 million, which would be the lowest since 2007/08. The season-average farm price is raised $0.20 per bushel to $9.20. The estimate for global wheat supplies was lowered 1.9 million tons to 1,057.7 million; The attached material show that ending stocks of global wheat are in decline for three years, but remain at comfortable levels. ...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.