The unclassified portion of the U.S. National Intelligence Council’s latest “Global Trends” report is pollyannish next to what wargamers are theorizing. The report categorizes risks into four categories: demographics, the environment, economics, and technology. On agriculture, it cites the sector for both contributing to global warming and being vulnerable to it, especially in terms of water. As if Donald Trump were still president, it predicts more “activist” trade policy and fragmentation over the next 20 years. Perhaps to the chagrin of Luddite activists, it says that biotechnology will contribute up to 20 percent of economic activity by 2040, addressing disease, hunger, and energy needs.  Yet the most...