Cash corn prices in the U.S., Argentina and Brazil tend to move in similar ways, with Argentina showing brief instances of outlier status.

However, comparing spot wheat prices in Argentina, the Black Sea and France shows a less robust upward movement in French wheat prices at this time of year. Part of this could be contra-seasonal effects, though the same should be true for corn. Moreover, the data is not adjusted for currency impacts. Analysis by USDA’s Economic Research Service certainly shows the dramatic impact of the depreciation of Brazil’s currency on that country’s agricultural exports (see graph below). The lower value of the real increased the competitiveness of Brazil’s output, which is why trade skept...