Key Takeaways
Weather conditions in China and India are deteriorating and threatening the wheat crops. Drought conditions in China are not without precedent, and modeling efforts suggest a modest 1.5 percent yield reduction vs. 2025. India’s wheat yields are forecast to fall 3 percent and pare back production to 116.3 MMT. China’s wheat demand is likely to contract slightly due to poor livestock profitability and reduced human consumption. China’s wheat ending stocks for 2026/27 are forecast to be only slightly less massive than normal, suggesting no serious supply shortage risk. WPI’s supply and consumption forecasts indicate no threat to either Chinese or Indian supplies for 2026/27 and limited risk of dynam...
What You Need to Know Today: The U.S. weather forecast has shifted to favor more beneficial conditions for finishing the corn and soybean crops, which is removing some weather risk premium from futures. Traders are looking ahead to Friday’s September WASDE, which will offer major insight...
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Pakistan’s government reports that it has purchased 750,000 MT of wheat that will be delivered in November 2026, along with another 250,000 MT for later delivery. The forecasted shortfall in wheat supply for 2026/27 could be...
