Long ago an old trader friend once told us that predicting the future is a harmless game unless one actually bets real money on his predictions. After all, he said, futures markets are nothing more than predictions about the future, and look how many people lose money betting on those predictions. Of course, his comments were made before funds and technical analyses were as prominent as they are today. Nevertheless, what he said way back then still retains some truth today. We occasionally play the harmless game of predicting the future, but we seldom bet money on our predictions. And when we do, it usually involves very little money and the outcome of a football game.In recent years we have taken the occasion of the New Year to make ad h...