Beef prices dropped sharply this week, with the Choice cutout down about $11/cwt in the past six trading days. The move unnerved live cattle futures on Wednesday (though the market recovered Thursday) and quickly led to concerns about beef demand weakening. After all, isn’t this supposed to be the seasonal run-up ahead of the summer grilling season? 

WPI suspects the industry has nothing to worry about regarding long-term beef demand, and the current decline in beef prices is likely only temporary. The biggest reason is that – in the absence of a major, beef- or cattle-specific shock (like BSE) – consumer demand does not change as rapidly as would justify the decline in beef prices. So, supply factors are the more li...