World Perspectives
wheat

WPI Wheat Outlook: 2025/26 Prices to Firm After Q1 Weakness

With the June Grain Stocks report now in the rear-view mirror and having offered USDA’s somewhat final (there is always the possibility of revisions) assessment of ending stocks for the 2024/25 crop, WPI offers the following outlook for the U.S. and global wheat markets. We specifically focus here on forecasting the quarterly wheat balance sheet and quarterly ending stocks, which have a strong correlation to the futures and cash price at the end of each quarter. Briefly, our outlook calls for a weaker pricing environment in Q1, followed by steady flat price and basis improvement that should offer substantial returns to storage.  To start with, WPI’s 2025/26 balance sheet forecast is a little more bearish than USDA’s l...

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feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: A Strong Close for the Week

Markets were higher in the overnight and were all green at the open this morning. By the end of the session, most remained higher except meal and HRS. It was mostly a bounce back Friday instead of a profit taking end of the week. Though there was generally some of the lowest volumes traded for...

Tariffs and the Value of the U.S. Dollar

The U.S. dollar has declined in value by 6.8 percent over the course of 2025, despite rising from its July lows. Typically, the value of the dollar strengthens during time of economic or geopolitical chaos, but not this year. Two major factors in the decline have been interest rates and Trump&r...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for August 1-7, 2025.  Wheat: Net sales of 722,800 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 2 percent from the previous week, but up 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 340,800 MT were down 49 percent from the previous week and 37 percen...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: A Strong Close for the Week

Markets were higher in the overnight and were all green at the open this morning. By the end of the session, most remained higher except meal and HRS. It was mostly a bounce back Friday instead of a profit taking end of the week. Though there was generally some of the lowest volumes traded for...

Tariffs and the Value of the U.S. Dollar

The U.S. dollar has declined in value by 6.8 percent over the course of 2025, despite rising from its July lows. Typically, the value of the dollar strengthens during time of economic or geopolitical chaos, but not this year. Two major factors in the decline have been interest rates and Trump&r...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Export Sales

Export Sales and Shipments for August 1-7, 2025.  Wheat: Net sales of 722,800 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were down 2 percent from the previous week, but up 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export shipments of 340,800 MT were down 49 percent from the previous week and 37 percen...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Another Day in a Sea of Red

After a three-day rally, the soybean complex drifted lower, wheat continued its bearish decline, and corn miraculously escaped another day of damage.  The market now awaits crop tour results, which at their onset appear to be confirming USDA’s view of big yields. Barring a miraculous...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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