Now that the WASDE has come and gone, it’s time for the commodity market analyst community to argue about why USDA’s projections are wrong and what the world will actually look like over the next marketing year. WPI is loath to miss this monthly festival of forecasting, so we offer our thoughts below. Before that, however, we note that while we may have different forecasts than USDA, we greatly appreciate their efforts and readily acknowledge that the entire agricultural industry is better off because of their work. Consequently, rather than offer these thoughts as evidence USDA is “wrong”, we simply throw our predictive hat into the ring alongside USDA’s work and hope you find our results and discussion useful...
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt and Algeria, in addition to Israel, are being monitored by Ukraine as possible destinations for grain taken by Russia from occupied Ukrainian regions. In April, Egypt had said that it would “stop accepting such shipmen...
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. launches naval escort operations in the Strait of Hormuz as Iran attacks UAE oil infrastructure, escalating geopolitical risk and supporting energy and broader commodity markets Biofuel demand entering uncharted territory, with soyoil valuation increasingly di...
The Middle East is said to be undergoing a transformation as economic priorities transcend security concerns. This is evidenced by diversification away from oil and the UAE’s departure from OPEC. Meanwhile, the Palestine issue has been deprioritized, and Iran has emerged as more destabili...
All eyes are shifting to the Senate following the House passage of a farm bill last Thursday. Senate Agriculture Committee Chair John Boozman (R-Arkansas) is targeting the end of May or early June for a bill markup. According to Boozman, the House “going ahead and passing something was re...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.