WTO Risk of Farm Bill Both the Senate- and House-passed farm bills end direct payments, which are considered green box neutral under WTO rules, and instead funnel much of the money back into supports coupled to production – deemed more market distorting. So how can the U.S. increase commodity subsidies and not burst through the caps imposed by the Uruguay Round? Because of the commodity market price assumptions used by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) when scoring the cost of the bill. Total government payments to the sector will stay below the caps because market prices are forecast to be high enough. However, if those forecasts are wrong, then there is a risk of WTO litigation.The forecast long-run average price of corn is $4.50...
What You Need to Know Today: Commodities were mostly lower across the board today after yesterday’s Federal Reserve meeting hinted at a potential interest rate hike later in 2026. The dollar index reached its highest level in over a year, and a strong dollar makes U.S. agricultural expor...
Tomorrow is the Juneteenth federal holiday, and the USDA, along with the rest of the federal government and the CME, will be closed, so the monthly Cattle on Feed report was released a day early. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity on 1 June amounted...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.