World Perspectives

Zero but Not Negative Interest Rates

The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FMOC) was scheduled to meet on Wednesday of this week, but for the second time it took emergency action prior to the meeting. On Sunday, Chairman Jerome Powell announced a 100 basis point cut to the federal fund rate. This comes after the Fed announced an emergency 50 basis point rate cut on 3 March.  That puts the rate in the range of 0 to 0.25 percent, to where it was lowered in 2008 and stayed until the end of 2015. In his statement Powell generally ruled out negative interest rates like Japan and Europe have had. Back in the fall of 2019, President Trump tweeted several times that the Fed should adopt negative interest rates, or at least get down to zero rates so that the...

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Market Commentary: Corn Exports Hit Record; WASDE Little Changed for Soy, Wheat

The CBOT wasn’t expecting much from the December WASDE report and USDA delivered fully on those expectations. The headline numbers were the increase of corn exports to a record-breaking 3.2 Bbu and a commensurate reduction in ending stocks. Soybeans and wheat were left out of the balance...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.48/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close.  Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.345/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close.  Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.8725/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close.  Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $301.3/short ton, down $5 f...

Trump Announces Farm Bailout

President Trump announced a total of $12 billion in funding for an ag agriculture bailout program yesterday. The funds will come from tariff revenue collected from the new tariffs.   The package includes $11 billion in one-time payments to crop farmers through a new USDA program, the...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: Corn Exports Hit Record; WASDE Little Changed for Soy, Wheat

The CBOT wasn’t expecting much from the December WASDE report and USDA delivered fully on those expectations. The headline numbers were the increase of corn exports to a record-breaking 3.2 Bbu and a commensurate reduction in ending stocks. Soybeans and wheat were left out of the balance...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Mar 26 Corn closed at $4.48/bushel, up $0.0425 from yesterday's close.  Mar 26 Wheat closed at $5.345/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close.  Jan 26 Soybeans closed at $10.8725/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close.  Jan 26 Soymeal closed at $301.3/short ton, down $5 f...

Trump Announces Farm Bailout

President Trump announced a total of $12 billion in funding for an ag agriculture bailout program yesterday. The funds will come from tariff revenue collected from the new tariffs.   The package includes $11 billion in one-time payments to crop farmers through a new USDA program, the...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

CFTC COT Report Analysis

The following tables/charts reflect the CFTC's latest data release, which covers traders' positions through 21 October. The data are, obviously, delayed due to the 40-day 2025 U.S. government shutdown. While the positions below likely have little influence on today's markets or fund positioning...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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