Recent Energy Analysis
Diesel Fuel Costs, One Acre at a Time
Key Takeaways: Diesel accounts for about 64 percent of U.S. farm fuel spending. For farmers, the pressing question is what a higher price adds to each field operation. Iowa farm diesel averaged $5.50/gallon in September, compared with the $2.89/gallon Iowa State assumed for its February machin...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.2825/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.0325/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.19/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $371/short ton, down $1.4 fr...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a slight net seller across agricultural markets for the second straight week, selling a net 3,200 contracts through Tuesday’s reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position to 1.017 million contracts. Despite the modest overall selling, soybeans and soyme...
Bad Ideas Redux
It’s often said that history doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes. If only humanity could stop repeating the worst parts of our historic verse. Politicians, again at the center of this week’s follies, have found a way to make old mistakes sound new: announce them at a pr...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.275/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.07/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.175/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $372.4/short ton, up $1.8 fr...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.29/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.085/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.18/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $370.6/short ton, down $0.1...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3675/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.1725/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.255/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $370.7/short ton, up $2...
Fed’s Warsh Defies Trump on Short-Term Monetary Policy Move
Last week, the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage point to a target range of 3.75 to 4 percent. That was the first rate hike since mid-2023, and the vote was unanimous. President Trump, who nominated Kevin Warsh in March...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.43/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.2675/bushel, up $0.125 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.28/bushel, up $0.245 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $368.4/short ton, up $9.8 from yes...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.275/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.1425/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.035/bushel, down $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $358.6/short ton, down $1...
Cattle on Feed Report: Lowest August Placements and Marketings on Record
USDA’s September cattle on feed report was released Friday, with the total number of cattle in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity amounting to 11.2 million head, 101 percent of last year. Placements dropped in August to their lowest total for the month since records began in 1996...
Fertilizer Shock: Concentration, Competition and the Cartel Question
What You Need to Know: U.S. fertilizer production is highly concentrated, but concentration alone does not establish that producers are operating as a cartel. Imports introduce competition unevenly: they supply nearly all U.S. potash consumption but play much smaller roles in domestic ammonia...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.305/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.27/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1975/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $371.3/short ton, up $5...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3425/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.3075/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.205/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $365.6/short ton, up $0.2 f...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3575/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.285/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1875/bushel, up $0.145 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $365.4/short ton, up $9.2 from...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3325/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.22/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.0425/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $356.2/short ton, up $3.4 fro...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3025/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.2525/bushel, down $0.16 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.965/bushel, down $0.3575 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $352.8/short ton, down $4...
CPI, PPI, Jobs Report Adding Up to Rate Hike from FOMC
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported this morning that August’s rate of inflation was 0.4 percent, holding steady at 3.4 percent for the year. That matched analysts’ pre-report expectations and was even with July’s rate of 3.4 percent. For the year, food was up 2.7 pe...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3375/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.4125/bushel, up $0.125 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.3225/bushel, up $0.2275 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $356.9/short ton, up $5.5 from...
Implications of $100+ per Barrel Crude Oil on Agriculture
Key Takeaways: The significance of $100-per-barrel crude depends largely on how long prices remain elevated, as sustained high energy costs are more likely to influence longer-term agricultural decisions. Higher crude oil prices raise farm production costs most directly through diesel, while a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.2775/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.2875/bushel, down $0.1825 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.095/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $351.4/short ton, up $...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.335/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.47/bushel, up $0.13 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1625/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $349.8/short ton, down $5.3 fro...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3675/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.34/bushel, down $0.2025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.0975/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $355.1/short ton, down $0.4 from...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The bull market in ag commodities continued through Tuesday’s data reporting deadline with drought, yield, and Black Sea export concerns driving another week of massive fund and commercial buying. Managed money traders bought 225,000 contracts across the ag markets through last Tuesday&rs...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.4075/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.5425/bushel, down $0.1975 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1625/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $355.5/short ton, up $5.9...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.435/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.74/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1025/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $349.6/short ton, down $3 f...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.46/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.825/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1775/bushel, up $0.2975 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $352.6/short ton, up $7.3 from...
EPA Announces 2025 SREs under the RFS: 1.76 Billion RINs
On Monday, 31 August, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced decisions for 34 small refinery exemption (SRE) petitions under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program for 2025. In consultation with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), EPA reviewed and considered information su...
EPA Grants 29 SREs, but Reallocation is the Story
Key Takeaways: EPA granted full or partial Small Refinery Exemptions to 29 of the 34 petitions under consideration, removing approximately 1.76 billion RINs from 2025 compliance obligations, roughly 770 million more RINs than EPA had previously anticipated. The larger exemption total does not...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3775/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.74/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.88/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $345.3/short ton, down $3.6 from yest...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The bull market in ag commodities reached a fevered pitch last week with drought, yield, and export concerns at key places around the world driving massive fund and commercial buying. Managed money traders bought 204,000 contracts across the ag markets through last Tuesday’s data reportin...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.365/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.84/bushel, up $0.2325 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.88/bushel, up $0.2 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $348.9/short ton, up $8 from yesterda...
Readout on the Fed’s Jackson Hole Meeting
The Federal Reserve Board holds an annual meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, each year about this time, and this year’s meeting is now. It’s always a “must-watch” event, but this year, amidst persistent inflation and with a new Fed chairman, Kevin Warsh, it drew additiona...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.335/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.6075/bushel, up $0.125 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.68/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $340.9/short ton, up $1.6 from ye...
Ethanol Margins Set to Decline; Biodiesel Margins Set to Explode
Key Takeaways: Ethanol margins continue to retreat from recent highs as rising costs – particularly corn and natural gas – offset gains in ethanol and DDGS values. WPI’s models expect ethanol margins to broadly follow their seasonal pattern, declining into the new year,...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.365/bushel, up $0.13 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.4825/bushel, up $0.45 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.66/bushel, up $0.2825 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $339.3/short ton, up $10.1 from ye...
Diesel Fuel Costs, One Acre at a Time
Key Takeaways: Diesel accounts for about 64 percent of U.S. farm fuel spending. For farmers, the pressing question is what a higher price adds to each field operation. Iowa farm diesel averaged $5.50/gallon in September, compared with the $2.89/gallon Iowa State assumed for its February machin...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.2825/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.0325/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.19/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $371/short ton, down $1.4 fr...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a slight net seller across agricultural markets for the second straight week, selling a net 3,200 contracts through Tuesday’s reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position to 1.017 million contracts. Despite the modest overall selling, soybeans and soyme...
Bad Ideas Redux
It’s often said that history doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes. If only humanity could stop repeating the worst parts of our historic verse. Politicians, again at the center of this week’s follies, have found a way to make old mistakes sound new: announce them at a pr...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.275/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.07/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.175/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $372.4/short ton, up $1.8 fr...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.29/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.085/bushel, down $0.0875 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.18/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $370.6/short ton, down $0.1...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3675/bushel, down $0.0625 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.1725/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.255/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $370.7/short ton, up $2...
Fed’s Warsh Defies Trump on Short-Term Monetary Policy Move
Last week, the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage point to a target range of 3.75 to 4 percent. That was the first rate hike since mid-2023, and the vote was unanimous. President Trump, who nominated Kevin Warsh in March...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.43/bushel, up $0.155 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.2675/bushel, up $0.125 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.28/bushel, up $0.245 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $368.4/short ton, up $9.8 from yes...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.275/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.1425/bushel, down $0.1275 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.035/bushel, down $0.1625 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $358.6/short ton, down $1...
Cattle on Feed Report: Lowest August Placements and Marketings on Record
USDA’s September cattle on feed report was released Friday, with the total number of cattle in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity amounting to 11.2 million head, 101 percent of last year. Placements dropped in August to their lowest total for the month since records began in 1996...
Fertilizer Shock: Concentration, Competition and the Cartel Question
What You Need to Know: U.S. fertilizer production is highly concentrated, but concentration alone does not establish that producers are operating as a cartel. Imports introduce competition unevenly: they supply nearly all U.S. potash consumption but play much smaller roles in domestic ammonia...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.305/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.27/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1975/bushel, down $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $371.3/short ton, up $5...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3425/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.3075/bushel, up $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.205/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $365.6/short ton, up $0.2 f...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3575/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.285/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1875/bushel, up $0.145 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $365.4/short ton, up $9.2 from...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3325/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.22/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.0425/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $356.2/short ton, up $3.4 fro...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3025/bushel, down $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.2525/bushel, down $0.16 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.965/bushel, down $0.3575 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $352.8/short ton, down $4...
CPI, PPI, Jobs Report Adding Up to Rate Hike from FOMC
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported this morning that August’s rate of inflation was 0.4 percent, holding steady at 3.4 percent for the year. That matched analysts’ pre-report expectations and was even with July’s rate of 3.4 percent. For the year, food was up 2.7 pe...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3375/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.4125/bushel, up $0.125 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.3225/bushel, up $0.2275 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $356.9/short ton, up $5.5 from...
Implications of $100+ per Barrel Crude Oil on Agriculture
Key Takeaways: The significance of $100-per-barrel crude depends largely on how long prices remain elevated, as sustained high energy costs are more likely to influence longer-term agricultural decisions. Higher crude oil prices raise farm production costs most directly through diesel, while a...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.2775/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.2875/bushel, down $0.1825 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.095/bushel, down $0.0675 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $351.4/short ton, up $...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.335/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.47/bushel, up $0.13 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1625/bushel, up $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $349.8/short ton, down $5.3 fro...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3675/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.34/bushel, down $0.2025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.0975/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $355.1/short ton, down $0.4 from...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The bull market in ag commodities continued through Tuesday’s data reporting deadline with drought, yield, and Black Sea export concerns driving another week of massive fund and commercial buying. Managed money traders bought 225,000 contracts across the ag markets through last Tuesday&rs...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.4075/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.5425/bushel, down $0.1975 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1625/bushel, up $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $355.5/short ton, up $5.9...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.435/bushel, down $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.74/bushel, down $0.085 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1025/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $349.6/short ton, down $3 f...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.46/bushel, up $0.0825 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.825/bushel, up $0.085 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.1775/bushel, up $0.2975 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $352.6/short ton, up $7.3 from...
EPA Announces 2025 SREs under the RFS: 1.76 Billion RINs
On Monday, 31 August, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced decisions for 34 small refinery exemption (SRE) petitions under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program for 2025. In consultation with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), EPA reviewed and considered information su...
EPA Grants 29 SREs, but Reallocation is the Story
Key Takeaways: EPA granted full or partial Small Refinery Exemptions to 29 of the 34 petitions under consideration, removing approximately 1.76 billion RINs from 2025 compliance obligations, roughly 770 million more RINs than EPA had previously anticipated. The larger exemption total does not...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.3775/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.74/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.88/bushel, up $0 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $345.3/short ton, down $3.6 from yest...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
The bull market in ag commodities reached a fevered pitch last week with drought, yield, and export concerns at key places around the world driving massive fund and commercial buying. Managed money traders bought 204,000 contracts across the ag markets through last Tuesday’s data reportin...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.365/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.84/bushel, up $0.2325 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.88/bushel, up $0.2 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $348.9/short ton, up $8 from yesterda...
Readout on the Fed’s Jackson Hole Meeting
The Federal Reserve Board holds an annual meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, each year about this time, and this year’s meeting is now. It’s always a “must-watch” event, but this year, amidst persistent inflation and with a new Fed chairman, Kevin Warsh, it drew additiona...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.335/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.6075/bushel, up $0.125 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.68/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $340.9/short ton, up $1.6 from ye...
Ethanol Margins Set to Decline; Biodiesel Margins Set to Explode
Key Takeaways: Ethanol margins continue to retreat from recent highs as rising costs – particularly corn and natural gas – offset gains in ethanol and DDGS values. WPI’s models expect ethanol margins to broadly follow their seasonal pattern, declining into the new year,...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.365/bushel, up $0.13 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.4825/bushel, up $0.45 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.66/bushel, up $0.2825 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $339.3/short ton, up $10.1 from ye...