Recent Equities Analysis
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.19/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.3025/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.875/bushel, down $0.2025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $287/short ton, down $4.6 fro...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.265/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.41/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0775/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $291.6/short ton, down $1.3 f...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.285/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.5225/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.105/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $292.9/short ton, down $2.2...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.3/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.655/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2225/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $295.1/short ton, down $1.1 from y...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.31/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.725/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3025/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $296.2/short ton, down $2.3 from yeste...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.275/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.715/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2625/bushel, up $0.225 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $298.5/short ton, up $0.1 from...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2625/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7325/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0375/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $298.4/short ton, down $1.1 from...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.115/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7325/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9125/bushel, up $0.1225 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $301.6/short ton, down $0.2 fr...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.925/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.3/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.57/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $302.1/short ton, down $5.6 from...
Market Commentary: Bullish End-of-Year Action in Soy Complex, Wheat
The CBOT posted another day of surprising between-holiday trade with multiple markets seeing above-average volume and scoring important technical developments. The major move for Friday’s trade came from soymeal, which boasted an upside breakout from a bull flag on the charts. The market...
Summary of Futures
Mar 21 Corn closed at $4.2375/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Mar 21 Wheat closed at $5.885/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $11.53/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Jan 21 Soymeal closed at $385.6/short ton, down $4.6 from...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $4.1625/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.98/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $11.535/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $389.3/short ton, up $1.2 from y...
Historical Coronavirus Impacts
While agricultural commodity values have been adversely impacted by the latest coronavirus afflicting human populations, it has been nothing like the beating being taken by the equities markets. In both cases there is a view that the selloff has been exaggerated. In the parlance of Chicago, ove...
Market Commentary
President Trump’s Twitter account was in overdrive this morning as he lashed out at China in a series of tweets, including a note that U.S. companies are “hereby ordered” to find alternatives to that country. This could be part of a bizarre negotiating strategy, a knee-jerk re...
Market Commentary
The markets are in the sweet spot where buyers and sellers are in agreement, and thus both bulls and bears can be dissatisfied by the stability of prices. The Pro Farmer tour wraps up today and reports its results tomorrow, but even its news has a bland taste. It has found areas of concern in t...
Market Commentary
Much like yesterday, today’s trading was dominated by crop tour yield numbers, good weather forecasts, and continued pressure on world wheat values. The soy complex managed to post solid gains, but wheat led corn lower amid significant spread trading. Funds are thought to be flat corn whi...
Market Commentary
Crop tour yield estimates were the feature of the day, and field reports that yields are likely to be lower than reflected in the August Crop Production report were supportive for row crops. The weather outlook remains broadly favorable with below-average temperatures and above-average rainfall...
Market Commentary
Weekend rains across Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana that are expected to boost corn and soybean yields pressured the CBOT today. Precipitation of 0.5-2” fell over parts of the Corn Belt that have badly needed it. The rains come just in time for the Pro Farmer Crop Tour, which is making its w...
Market Commentary
Expectations of crop tours finding yields below USDA’s latest estimate gave the CBOT a boost to end what has otherwise been a bearish week. Private yield estimates prompted a round of short covering in the corn and soybean markets, while wheat was left largely directionless. Cattle prices...
Market Commentary
The corn bulls have been hoping that the Pro Farmer crop tour will reveal USDA to be a liar. The crop voyeurs are seeing some yields below the its estimates but also some that are higher. Either way, their observations will not change USDA’s numbers. In fact, those could stay roughly the...
Market Commentary
Markets continue to reel from the August WASDE with the trade trying to decide if USDA’s latest figures are wrong, right, or somewhere in between. One could make the case either way with its estimates being the best available at a given time but also subject to the fact that the world (an...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat found continued pressure from overnight analysis of the August WASDE, while the soy complex managed to find significant support for the day. The market is still debating the accuracy of USDA’s corn estimates, but fund position liquidation is forcing it to adopt those figure...
Market Commentary
It was all about the WASDE today with futures mostly consolidating overnight before trading lower heading into the report. The most notable feature in the August WASDE was the bearish surprise to the corn market with 2019 corn planted acres and yields estimated at 90.0 million and 169.5 bushels...
Market Commentary
Ag commodities started the day higher with corn leading the way on a short covering rally. Positioning ahead of the WASDE was the name of the game today with many traders straddling/strangling the market in expectation of volatility in either direction. Trading volumes were slightly below avera...
Market Commentary
After testing bottoms earlier this week, the commodity market (like equities) reversed on short covering and moved higher. Fund buying was active, and the spread trade was pushed by major funds rolling their positions this week. The weather forecast suggests the possibility of some rain this we...
Market Commentary
Ag commodities closed mostly higher for the day after trading both sides of unchanged. Continued weakness in macro markets pressured futures, while mild supply-side concerns for corn and soybeans were supportive. Growing doubts on whether the U.S. and China will meet in September are emboldenin...
Market Commentary
Funds were net sellers in a day that bears regained the fundamental advantage. With China having claimed yesterday to officially suspend its purchases of U.S. agricultural goods, demand destruction now reigns supreme in the market’s mind. If China truly avoids U.S. ag commodities, the odd...
Market Commentary
Reversal is the CBOT’s word of the day. Grain markets started out weaker overnight as concerns about the trade war with China deepened. Over the weekend, the yuan traded sharply lower as the Chinese government is likely manipulating its currency to defend against the latest round of Trump...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw the start of a modest recovery at the CBOT with corn finishing 3.5 cents higher, soybeans up 5.75 cents and wheat gaining 3 cents. Weather forecasts late Thursday afternoon/evening issued a notably drier outlook for the eastern Corn Belt that poses some threat to the...
Market Commentary
Except for Kansas City wheat, markets were down overnight, and everything nosedived today. December corn initially tried to recover, but that didn’t last long. It closed at $402.50, below the 200-day moving average (MA). The question opening the day was whether November soybeans would tes...
Market Commentary
It was one-sided trading at the CBOT today with nearly every market flashing sell signals. The sell-off has been blamed on end-of-the-month selling/positioning, mild summer temperatures, and fund liquidation, so the true driver is probably a combination of the three along with other factors. Re...
Market Commentary
Improving corn conditions and presidential tweets noting that China has not purchased any agricultural goods sent the markets lower overnight. The tweets suggested there has been little progress negotiating a trade deal, and traders are worried the president may be getting ready to apply more t...
Market Commentary
CBOT ag markets traded mostly higher today with a growing feeling that positions are being exited and new longs/shorts avoided. Volume was largely below average with little news to spark excitement in any market. Favorable weekend weather across the Midwest helped crop development, and a positi...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was slightly weaker as the selling continued after yesterday’s disappointing close. Positions are being liquidated as summer weather forecasts improve, despite the fact that corn and soybeans are in rough shape across much of the U.S. The day session featured more...
Market Commentary
Agricultural commodity markets remained weak overall, and equities had a down day too. Wheat had some gains, but much of the complexes went south. Expectations for U.S. export sales were low, and the report mostly did not disappoint. However, wheat export sales were much better than expected as...
Market Commentary
Today was all about improved weather forecasts for the Midwest. Weekend showers across the upper Midwest offered a modest reprieve from the extreme heat, although reports of leaf roll in the corn crop are still notable. Fortunately, the six-10-day weather forecast features dryness but with mild...
Market Commentary
Soybeans quickly moved into the green during overnight trading and extended those gains early this morning. November soybeans finished that session 9.75 cents higher, which lent modest support to corn (up 1.75 cents) and wheat (September SRW up 2.25) futures as well. The day session featured st...
Market Commentary
It was mostly a risk-off day as the prospects for better Midwest weather combined with continued technical selling sent prices lower. It may not be the bottom, but there may be hesitancy to get too far out ahead of the “real” prevented planting number. Moreover, it is still hot, and...
Market Commentary
Modest volume in overnight trading featured mostly lower prices before the market turned higher heading into the morning break. Corn, soybean, and wheat futures all finished that session with 3-5 cent gains. The day session opened with notable buy corn/sell soybeans action that left the soy com...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw continued selling from Monday’s weaker day with soybeans leading the way lower to losses in excess of 10 cents. Soymeal was also hit hard, while corn and wheat futures suffered more minor dips into the red. The Crop Progress report was somewhat comforting yesterday w...
Market Commentary
The CBOT fell modestly in overnight trading with soybeans and soymeal leading the way. Corn and wheat followed the soy complex lower to losses of a few pennies. The day session saw grains and oilseeds quickly come under pressure and again succumb to moderate losses. Some analysts placed the bla...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw corn and soybeans firmer on continuation of yesterday’s post-WASDE rally, while bulls were firmly in control during the day session. The trade is increasingly suspicious of USDA’s numbers and the use of satellite imagery, and other data is starting to overrule...
Market Commentary
The unique aspect going into today’s WASDE report was the diversity of issues and opinions about what it would say. Markets are especially uncertain due to competing narratives. On one hand, the market trades on USDA’s numbers as the most authoritative. The weather is now better, an...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was weaker with modest volume and choppy price action as the trade waits for tomorrow’s July WASDE. Open interest grew for corn, soybeans, and wheat as traders and commercials are apparently adding to positions ahead of the report. Midwest weather is warmer and features...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading found CBOT futures lower after yesterday’s rally in corn stalled at key moving average (MA) resistance and from yesterday’s technically weak close in wheat. Corn finished nearly 8 cents lower, while the soy complex bled into the red as well. Only wheat managed to f...
Market Commentary
At the macro level, the day started off with a strong U.S. jobs report that indicated 224,000 jobs were created in June. This reduced the chances that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates, which buoyed the U.S. dollar and caused equities to back off from the roaring gains of the past f...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw quiet consolidation as traders made final preparations for today’s USDA reports. There was little outside news to spark much movement, except for hot/dry weather in France keeping wheat prices slightly higher and better U.S. weather forecasts pressuring corn. The day...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw a modest rally as prices bounced back from yesterday’s daytime losses. Soybeans and wheat were the upside leaders with corn a reluctant follower. Today was the first position day for July futures, and tomorrow will start the delivery period. Given the recent strength...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw widespread pressure that continued yesterday’s turn lower. Corn fell 3.5 cents, soybeans lost 4 cents, SRW wheat dropped 4.75 cents, and HRW futures were 16.75 cents lower. Weather across the U.S. is looking more favorable for crop development, which is pressuring bu...
Market Commentary
The CBOT turned higher overnight as worse-than-expected crop condition ratings prompted traders to continue adding weather premia to the market. Corn and soybeans were the upside leaders with SRW wheat reluctantly following. HRW wheat fell 5.75 cents as decent harvest progress and flat cash pri...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were up overnight in a delayed reaction to Friday’s CFTC report. Soybeans led corn and soybeans higher on extended short covering. The weekend’s rainy weather didn’t bring traders any comfort and added fuel to the rally. The day session opened hig...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were mixed overnight in light trading volume that saw corn, wheat, and soybeans trade both sides of unchanged. Yesterday’s move higher on the charts should create a more bullish outlook, but the grains had trouble following through on that in the overnight se...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were mostly lower overnight as funds continued liquidating long positions and the latest weather forecast offered more moderate temperatures starting next week. Open interest figures reflected the liquidation with drops of 33,000 contracts for soybeans and 5,000 co...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were mostly lower overnight with the corn market’s recent support diminishing. Soybeans were choppy with headlines about a potential Trump/Xi meeting being balanced against the overall bearishness of soybean fundamentals. Overall, the market was characterized...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were weaker overnight as profit taking in corn and wheat pushed those markets lower. Soybeans were sold in sympathy with the grains, although soyoil posted modest gains on long soyoil/short soymeal spread trade. Agricultural and equity markets received a boost this...
News Impacts on Commodity Volatility
Researchers from Northwestern, Stanford, and the University of Chicago tracked equity market volatility with articles from eleven different newspapers, and they unsurprisingly found that trade policy had no impact on the market prior to the election of Donald Trump (see NBER Working Paper No. 2...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were higher overnight as continued rain across the Midwest threatens the corn and soybean crops. At this point, there are many fields that will simply go unplanted, while planted crops will deteriorate due to the excessive moisture. One potential problem is that th...
Market Commentary
The markets were slightly firmer overnight but then caught a little fire this morning. It is starting to seem that those in the corn market are considering the possibility that the 2019 U.S. crop could fall below 13 billion bushels. There is also more concern now that not all the soybean acres...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were higher overnight with large volumes traded. July corn traded over 95,000 contracts, July soybeans saw volume near 22,000 contracts, and July SRW wheat swapped 12,000 contracts. The overnight move higher in heavy volume was hugely important in setting the stage...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were lower overnight in a correction from yesterday’s WASDE-induced move higher. There was little fresh news last night, but additional commercial hedges were placed after yesterday’s strong gains. The day session found significant short covering in soy...
Market Commentary
Today’s trading revolved around the June WASDE report with corn, soybeans and wheat lower before its release as traders anticipated only minor changes to the U.S. balance sheets. Corn moved swiftly higher after the report was issued, however, as USDA surprised the market by drastically cu...
Market Commentary
Consolidation was the word of the day ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE report. Corn finished slightly higher for the most part, while soybeans and wheat added a few pennies’ value. There was notable short covering in the soy complex as traders evened their positions after several days of l...
Market Commentary
Ag futures attempted an overnight rally, but none (except for corn) were able to overcome yesterday’s highs. The inability of bulls to push the market above that point led to a weaker opening in slow trade this morning. Weather remains a focus, but with mostly improved conditions across t...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean futures were both lower overnight, while wheat futures found support after consecutive down days. The forecast remains favorable for spring crop planting and development, and USDA’s recent announcement that prevented planting acres will be ineligible for Market Facilitati...
Market Commentary
Weather forecasts run yesterday afternoon and evening continue to show a drying trend across the Corn Belt, which led futures lower overnight. The worst of the planting-delaying weather seems to be over, and fresh forecasts are broadly encouraging. Overnight pressure also came from news that ho...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was mixed with corn and soybeans firmer, while wheat dropped lower. However, the volume of trade was large, which speaks to the importance of the Crop Progress reports this year. If USDA’s March acreage figures are correct, yesterday’s report suggests there are 30...
Market Commentary
The weather is supposed to improve over the northern part of the Midwest, allowing a robust planting opportunity, and speculators opened the day by initially selling corn for that reason as well as concern over the trade spat with Mexico. Wheat prices remained firm, which initially held corn up...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was mostly lower on technical trades, the fact that short covering seems to have ended for the week, and a new trade war. The president announced late Thursday that the U.S. would apply a 5 percent tariff on goods imported from Mexico, which will be gradually increased to 25 p...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade featured prices on both sides of unchanged in heavy volume (well, heavy for an overnight session). Corn attempted to break below yesterday’s low but failed, which brought more buying heading into the morning. At the close, corn, soybean and wheat futures were all higher. T...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s crop progress report was gasoline on the fire for futures markets. The corn planting figure was lower than expected with key growing states (Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio) well behind their typical paces. More concerningly, soybean planting is also behind schedule, perhaps indic...
Market Commentary
Trading for the holiday-shortened week started with grains in the green during the overnight session as the wet U.S. weather pattern remained in place over the weekend. Corn farmers are quickly running into the final planting dates for crop insurance eligibility, and the odds of 5 million or mo...
Market Commentary
The markets firmed up overnight following yesterday’s sell-off. The latter was generated by too many analysts trying to pick apart the administration’s latest confusing proposal to send more money to farmers because of the trade problem with China. None of that has anything to do wi...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade was light as the markets were largely waiting for this morning’s export sales report data. Before it was issued, corn, wheat, and soybean futures were slightly higher. The report, however, was bearish old crop corn and soybeans, which meant the overnight session ended with...
Market Commentary
Grains were lower overnight in consolidative trade after Tuesday’s rally. July corn finished the session down 4 cents, July soybeans added 2 cents, and July SRW wheat finished 7.25 cents lower. Open interest in corn continues to grow with 18,000 contracts added yesterday, while soybean op...
Market Commentary
Active overnight trade pushed the CBOT higher with corn up 6.75 cents, soybeans up 7.75 cents and Chicago wheat up 8.5 cents before the morning session’s open. The catalyst for this was, of course, USDA’s confirmation yesterday afternoon that the current corn crop is the most delaye...
Market Commentary
The U.S. Corn Belt and much of the northern Plains had a very wet and cold weekend, and there is more rain on the way (see five-day precipitation forecast map below). We stated last Friday that markets would be going higher if the wet forecasts were confirmed, and that is what they did today...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat futures maintained their winning ways today on more wet weather across the Corn Belt. 1-2 inches of rainfall were common across Iowa today, and there is a great deal of heavy rain in the five-day forecast. NOAA released its updated long-lead forecasts, which show June and July wi...
Market Commentary
After yesterday’s pause, grain markets shot higher today and pulled the soy complex along for the ride. The weather remains a focus with fund short covering and commercial hedge buying contributing to the rally. While the fundamentals (as most recently reported by USDA) remain bear...
Market Commentary
In market analysis, technical indicators and chart patterns often precede major changes in fundamental supply/demand relationships. One theory why this occurs is that the collective wisdom of the market recognizes small but important changes in the fundamentals before they have exerted their ev...
Market Commentary
The breaking off of U.S.-Chinese talks late last week led to what appeared to be market exhaustion overnight and early Monday morning as new contract lows were set. But in a reversal, prices pulled themselves up and well above those lows by Monday’s close. That technical signal and USDA&r...
Market Commentary
Markets opened weak again Sunday evening. Corn and soybeans were down 3-4 cents and 8-9 cents, respectively. Meanwhile, wheat was 3 cents lower in KC while down 1-2 cents in Chicago and Minneapolis. The lower prices reflected the lack of any apparent progress in U.S.-China trade talks last Frid...
Market Commentary
Markets traded mostly steady overnight and until the USDA WASDE was released at noon (EDT) today. Both the 2018/19 revisions and the first look at 2019/20 were bearish for corn, wheat and soybeans. That initially sent corn and wheat futures down 5-6 cents, while soybeans dropped 1-2 cents. The...
Market Commentary
One way or another, today’s grain and soy futures market action was all about China and the critical negotiations that began later this afternoon. We call them critical because in the current acrimonious atmosphere, the results of the meetings today and Friday will probably determine whet...
Market Commentary
The latest volleys in the U.S.-China trade war kept markets on the defensive today. CBOT products were slightly higher in light trading overnight as some mild short covering helped the markets inch higher. Open interest is declining for corn, soybeans, and wheat – indicating that funds ar...
Market Commentary
For all the political turbulence surrounding the trade dispute with China, the scheduled increase in tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods and other related matters, grain and soy markets were rather quiet overnight and again today. Price movements were measured with trading volume average a...
Market Commentary
Markets opened with sharp losses overnight following President Trump’s weekend tweet that he will increase tariffs against China from the current 10 percent to 25 percent by Friday. This suddenly changed the China trade agreement discussion from what most had believed was a done deal to p...
No China Trade Deal?
The grain trade returned to work last night with the strong possibility that the much-anticipated trade deal with China might not happen. This was based on President Trump’s weekend tweet that he will increase tariffs on Chinese imports from 10 percent to 25 percent. This sent grain and o...
Market Commentary
Markets traded relatively thinly to close out the week today, although volume earlier this week was quite strong. The China trade talks will resume again next week. While people are hopeful a deal is close, they won’t trade that until it is done. Weather remains a very real problem across...
Market Commentary
With yesterday’s May Day celebrants back at work today, trading volume for grain and soy markets picked up and will probably be above the recent average. Basically, it was a tale of two markets today. The grains were stronger, but the soy complex was hammered again. Weekly export sales fo...
Market Commentary
The meeting between U.S. and Chinese trade officials in Beijing concluded earlier than expected today and is scheduled to resume in Washington next week. This early adjournment could be read as either a good or a bad sign. Markets took it as a good sign, especially when the financial press repo...
Market Commentary
The U.S. trade delegation is a meeting with its Chinese counterpart in Beijing today, and what have become the usual optimistic noises from both sides are being heard. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is quoted as saying he hopes that negotiations will be wrapped up when Vice-Premier Liu and his team...
Market Commentary
The beat goes on (just more slowly). Corn and wheat prices were slightly higher overnight with soybeans slightly lower. That’s how the market opened this morning and then traded through much of the session to finish the week. Corn did catch a little fire, though, and its strength was like...
Market Commentary
Finally, some stability seemed to creep into grain and soy futures markets – a least for a day. Prices stayed rather close to yesterday’s closes in overnight trade, and they even managed to finish mostly in the green as the day session ended. To be sure, they were unable to hang on...
Market Commentary
Statistics Canada released its initial estimates, which are based on surveys conducted last month, of planted area for 2019. Much like the U.S., they show a decline in oilseed plantings and an increase for grains. With the de facto Chinese embargo on Canadian canola weighing heavily on prices,...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices chopped slightly around either side of unchanged in overnight trade, giving rise to thoughts that those markets might be able to muster up a Turnaround Tuesday. However, it was not to be. Renewed fund selling of corn and soybean contracts kept prices under pressure througho...
Market Commentary
Grain and oilseed markets came back from the long Easter holiday weekend in a slightly bearish mode overnight and today with wheat the weakest. Weather forecasts are starting to look better as May approaches. If they prove to be accurate, corn and soybean planting should catch up quickly. That...
Market Commentary
Note: CME grain and soy markets are closed tomorrow (Friday) and will re-open Easter Sunday evening. U.S. government offices will be open tomorrow, however, and regularly scheduled reports such as the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders (COT) report will be released then. U.S trade negotiators a...
Market Commentary
After yesterday’s lashing, the grain and soy futures markets tried to rally during the overnight session. Corn and soybeans gained a few cents, and wheat, which took the worst beating, regained several cents. However, the rally effort was not able to generate any momentum, and it had fade...
Market Commentary
For the second day of this holiday-shortened week, the overnight session produced minor losses for grain and the soy complex amid extremely light trading volume. However, that did not adequately prepare traders for what happened during the day session. Wheat and corn markets were pummeled by mo...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading had corn and soybean markets higher with wheat markets slightly lower, and the only thing that changed during today’s session was an extension of those gains and losses. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin’s positive comments on the China trade deal from over the weekend se...
Market Commentary
Trading volume was light today. Corn and wheat were slightly lower through most of the day, while soybeans traded a penny or two higher for a brief time and then returned to fractionally lower levels or unchanged by the close. There were no export sales announcements today. Yesterday’s we...
Market Commentary
Soybeans and corn were about unchanged in low volume overnight trading, while wheat was up a couple of pennies. The market was waiting for the export sales report, although it was not expected to cause any excitement. The spring blizzard pummeling Nebraska, South Dakota and southern Minnesota w...
Market Commentary
Such changes as were made in yesterday’s April WASDE were uniformly bearish – lower use, larger stocks, bigger South American production, more competition for U.S. grain and soy exports, etc. However, the report contained little that was not expected. Grain and soy markets hardly re...
Market Commentary
The April 2019 WASDE was mostly neutral the grains complex but bullish soyoil as USDA’s changes offered few surprises. The CBOT had a weaker tone before the report’s release, largely due to better-than-expected winter wheat conditions and a 2 percent planting progress for corn. That...
Market Commentary
Grain and oilseeds markets were mixed to start the week in the Sunday night session. Soybeans traded slightly higher through most of the night with corn steady and wheat lower. Overnight volume was average. This week’s big news will be USDA’s April WASDE (supply and demand), set to...
Market Commentary
Markets were weak overnight and more so today as the trade again grew weary of all the positive talk regarding the U.S. China dispute with still no real deal. President Trump commented that “we’re not there yet” on a final agreement, and he also said farmers will be very happy...
Market Commentary
It is a waiting game. Agricultural interests of nearly every variety hope that this afternoon’s meeting between Chinese Vice-Premier Liu and President Trump will end with an announcement of a trade deal. Such an announcement would likely also include word of a meeting between Trump and Ch...
Market Commentary
It was another day of quiet, low volume, wait-and-see trade in grain and soy complex futures. Prices were a bit higher across the board overnight, but they turned to more of a mixed stance during the day session as most contracts traded on both sides of Tuesday’s closes. At the end, Chica...
Market Commentary
There was an effort to continue yesterday’s rally overnight. However, enthusiasm faded rather quickly as markets settled into mundane trade with soybeans holding a couple of cents higher and wheat turning down a like amount. That left corn in the middle and about unchanged. The day sessio...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean markets found small measures of support in the Sunday night session, while wheat was mostly steady. Volume was good overnight, especially in corn. Last Friday’s USDA numbers were simply bearish for the corn market and neutral to slightly positive for wheat and soybeans. M...
Market Commentary
The U.S. farm economy didn’t find any relief on the immediate horizon in today’s USDA acreage and quarterly stocks estimates (see today’s separate analysis for details), and corn got hammered as soon as they were released. More optimistic talk about a trade deal with China did...
Market Commentary
As expected on the day before major USDA reports, overnight trading volume in grain and soy futures was subdued. In price action, soybeans were 2-3 cents higher, wheat was 6-7 cents lower, and corn was near unchanged. This same price pattern was maintained through the first half of the day sess...
Market Commentary
Last night’s session produced a story similar to that told by overnight trade of grain and soy futures for much of the last few weeks – mixed price action, limited price movement and low trading volume. Corn and soybeans were 1-2 cents lower, while wheat managed to hang onto a small...
Market Commentary
It was another very quiet start to the week overnight with soybeans slightly higher, corn steady and wheat slightly lower. Markets opened steady across the board this morning but found some buying in the first hour of the session that took prices to 3-5 cent gains. The major weekend news was al...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat markets were firm overnight, while the soy complex was weaker. That was the pattern for much of today’s markets as well. Cool, wet weather and perhaps the worst flooding across parts of the Corn Belt ever are elevating concerns about a slow start to the corn planting season...
Market Commentary
The overnight session continued the recent trend of low trading volume and narrow, mixed price movement. This occurred as traders await developments from next week’s high level trade negotiations in Beijing as well as the 29 March quarterly stocks and initial acreage reports from USDA. Ac...
Market Commentary
It has been more low and slow trade overnight and again today. Wheat is the star of the day with the May contracts for Chicago and KC both closing up 8.25 cents and that for MGEX finishing 6.25 cents higher. Low trading volume can often result in abrupt and sharp price movements as market order...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was a mixed and low volume affair. The grains were slightly higher, and soybeans were just below Monday’s close. None of the lead contracts were able to muster as much as 10,000 contracts of trading volume. The day session began with a modest rally effort, but that did n...
Market Commentary
Markets were weaker to start the Sunday evening session, and that negative trading pattern persisted throughout today. As another analyst wrote, the market is starving for news of any kind. China talk continues to dominate the markets’ attitude and direction. There was more chatter over t...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean markets were steady to slightly higher overnight with wheat 1-2 cents lower. Soybean futures led the markets all higher this morning on another round of positive news surrounding the China/U.S. trade talks. It seems that most are now convinced an agreement is near. This belief...
Market Commentary
Traders showed more interest in the overnight session. Volume was not back to Tuesday’s level, but it was notably higher than Wednesday’s. Pricewise, the results were mixed. Grains were steady to firm, but soybeans traded mostly lower. A wire service reported late in the overnight s...
Market Commentary
NASS has decided to no longer conduct actual field surveys in compiling production and yield estimates for corn and soybeans in the August WASDE as they are deemed too early at that time to be very meaningful. It will instead only use farmer surveys, weather/yield models and satellite data. Fie...
Market Commentary
It was a vivid “Turnaround Tuesday” for grain and soy markets after Monday’s dive to test recent lows and, in some case, set new record lows. It began rather gradually in the overnight session, which saw trading volume notably higher than average. Prices started out slightly l...
Market Commentary
Corn, wheat and soybean started ever so slightly firmer Sunday evening and then traded mixed the rest of the night. All the markets started today’s session lower, and the losses mounted as the day wore on. There just isn’t any fundamental news out to ignite even a minor short-coveri...
Market Commentary
Markets tried to be slightly better overnight and this morning in hope that today’s USDA’s reports might contain some positive news. There was nothing in the WASDE that could be considered even slightly bullish. It was the opposite as ending supplies for U.S. wheat and corn were hig...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading volume improved, but price movement was limited. Corn and wheat were lower, while soybeans firmed by a few cents ahead of the trading recess. Yesterday’s changes in open interest showed increases of 22,141 contracts of corn, 16,889 soybean contracts and 7,789 contracts o...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s firmer market did not have the legs to carry over into the night session. Grain and soybean values turned lower in overnight trade with corn futures down a fraction, soybeans off 1-2 cents and Chicago wheat down about 4 cents. Trading volume was again quite low. The price weak...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets were soft overnight with corn, wheat and soybeans trading slightly below Tuesday’s close. Trading volume was quite low. The day session found wheat taking an unusual bounce higher, but corn managed only a small gain. Soybeans slipped a couple of cents, and soy produc...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean futures were higher in the Sunday evening session with wheat steady, and that is the way the market opened this morning as well. There was renewed optimism that the U.S. and China are very close to reaching an agreement on trade. President Trump has reportedly asked the Chinese...
Market Commentary
Corn was steady, soybeans were higher, and wheat was lower overnight in light trading volume. Everything was then lower after the first hour of the day session. The U.S. and China are reportedly close to reaching agreement on at least the initial phases of a trade deal, and there might be a sig...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures were mixed overnight with wheat trying to rally (again), soybeans a bit weaker and corn stuck in between. Trading volume was not impressive. Price weakness became more pervasive during the day session in light volume. At the close, only soyoil and MGEX wheat futures were h...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean futures prices were fractionally firmer overnight, while wheat prices sought to recover at least a sliver of their February losses. Chicago wheat was up about 5 cents heading into the early morning trading recess. Later in the morning, traders were tuned into the testimony on C...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.19/bushel, down $0.075 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.3025/bushel, down $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.875/bushel, down $0.2025 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $287/short ton, down $4.6 fro...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.265/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.41/bushel, down $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0775/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $291.6/short ton, down $1.3 f...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.285/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.5225/bushel, down $0.1325 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.105/bushel, down $0.1175 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $292.9/short ton, down $2.2...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.3/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.655/bushel, down $0.07 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2225/bushel, down $0.08 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $295.1/short ton, down $1.1 from y...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.31/bushel, up $0.035 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.725/bushel, up $0.01 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.3025/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $296.2/short ton, down $2.3 from yeste...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.275/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.715/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.2625/bushel, up $0.225 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $298.5/short ton, up $0.1 from...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.2625/bushel, up $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7325/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $10.0375/bushel, up $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $298.4/short ton, down $1.1 from...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $4.115/bushel, down $0.0225 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Wheat closed at $5.7325/bushel, up $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Jan 25 Soybeans closed at $9.9125/bushel, up $0.1225 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $301.6/short ton, down $0.2 fr...
Summary of Futures
Dec 24 Corn closed at $3.925/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Sep 24 Wheat closed at $5.3/bushel, up $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $9.57/bushel, down $0.115 from yesterday's close. Dec 24 Soymeal closed at $302.1/short ton, down $5.6 from...
Market Commentary: Bullish End-of-Year Action in Soy Complex, Wheat
The CBOT posted another day of surprising between-holiday trade with multiple markets seeing above-average volume and scoring important technical developments. The major move for Friday’s trade came from soymeal, which boasted an upside breakout from a bull flag on the charts. The market...
Summary of Futures
Mar 21 Corn closed at $4.2375/bushel, up $0.03 from yesterday's close. Mar 21 Wheat closed at $5.885/bushel, up $0.1125 from yesterday's close. Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $11.53/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Jan 21 Soymeal closed at $385.6/short ton, down $4.6 from...
Summary of Futures
Dec 20 Corn closed at $4.1625/bushel, up $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Wheat closed at $5.98/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $11.535/bushel, up $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 20 Soymeal closed at $389.3/short ton, up $1.2 from y...
Historical Coronavirus Impacts
While agricultural commodity values have been adversely impacted by the latest coronavirus afflicting human populations, it has been nothing like the beating being taken by the equities markets. In both cases there is a view that the selloff has been exaggerated. In the parlance of Chicago, ove...
Market Commentary
President Trump’s Twitter account was in overdrive this morning as he lashed out at China in a series of tweets, including a note that U.S. companies are “hereby ordered” to find alternatives to that country. This could be part of a bizarre negotiating strategy, a knee-jerk re...
Market Commentary
The markets are in the sweet spot where buyers and sellers are in agreement, and thus both bulls and bears can be dissatisfied by the stability of prices. The Pro Farmer tour wraps up today and reports its results tomorrow, but even its news has a bland taste. It has found areas of concern in t...
Market Commentary
Much like yesterday, today’s trading was dominated by crop tour yield numbers, good weather forecasts, and continued pressure on world wheat values. The soy complex managed to post solid gains, but wheat led corn lower amid significant spread trading. Funds are thought to be flat corn whi...
Market Commentary
Crop tour yield estimates were the feature of the day, and field reports that yields are likely to be lower than reflected in the August Crop Production report were supportive for row crops. The weather outlook remains broadly favorable with below-average temperatures and above-average rainfall...
Market Commentary
Weekend rains across Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana that are expected to boost corn and soybean yields pressured the CBOT today. Precipitation of 0.5-2” fell over parts of the Corn Belt that have badly needed it. The rains come just in time for the Pro Farmer Crop Tour, which is making its w...
Market Commentary
Expectations of crop tours finding yields below USDA’s latest estimate gave the CBOT a boost to end what has otherwise been a bearish week. Private yield estimates prompted a round of short covering in the corn and soybean markets, while wheat was left largely directionless. Cattle prices...
Market Commentary
The corn bulls have been hoping that the Pro Farmer crop tour will reveal USDA to be a liar. The crop voyeurs are seeing some yields below the its estimates but also some that are higher. Either way, their observations will not change USDA’s numbers. In fact, those could stay roughly the...
Market Commentary
Markets continue to reel from the August WASDE with the trade trying to decide if USDA’s latest figures are wrong, right, or somewhere in between. One could make the case either way with its estimates being the best available at a given time but also subject to the fact that the world (an...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat found continued pressure from overnight analysis of the August WASDE, while the soy complex managed to find significant support for the day. The market is still debating the accuracy of USDA’s corn estimates, but fund position liquidation is forcing it to adopt those figure...
Market Commentary
It was all about the WASDE today with futures mostly consolidating overnight before trading lower heading into the report. The most notable feature in the August WASDE was the bearish surprise to the corn market with 2019 corn planted acres and yields estimated at 90.0 million and 169.5 bushels...
Market Commentary
Ag commodities started the day higher with corn leading the way on a short covering rally. Positioning ahead of the WASDE was the name of the game today with many traders straddling/strangling the market in expectation of volatility in either direction. Trading volumes were slightly below avera...
Market Commentary
After testing bottoms earlier this week, the commodity market (like equities) reversed on short covering and moved higher. Fund buying was active, and the spread trade was pushed by major funds rolling their positions this week. The weather forecast suggests the possibility of some rain this we...
Market Commentary
Ag commodities closed mostly higher for the day after trading both sides of unchanged. Continued weakness in macro markets pressured futures, while mild supply-side concerns for corn and soybeans were supportive. Growing doubts on whether the U.S. and China will meet in September are emboldenin...
Market Commentary
Funds were net sellers in a day that bears regained the fundamental advantage. With China having claimed yesterday to officially suspend its purchases of U.S. agricultural goods, demand destruction now reigns supreme in the market’s mind. If China truly avoids U.S. ag commodities, the odd...
Market Commentary
Reversal is the CBOT’s word of the day. Grain markets started out weaker overnight as concerns about the trade war with China deepened. Over the weekend, the yuan traded sharply lower as the Chinese government is likely manipulating its currency to defend against the latest round of Trump...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw the start of a modest recovery at the CBOT with corn finishing 3.5 cents higher, soybeans up 5.75 cents and wheat gaining 3 cents. Weather forecasts late Thursday afternoon/evening issued a notably drier outlook for the eastern Corn Belt that poses some threat to the...
Market Commentary
Except for Kansas City wheat, markets were down overnight, and everything nosedived today. December corn initially tried to recover, but that didn’t last long. It closed at $402.50, below the 200-day moving average (MA). The question opening the day was whether November soybeans would tes...
Market Commentary
It was one-sided trading at the CBOT today with nearly every market flashing sell signals. The sell-off has been blamed on end-of-the-month selling/positioning, mild summer temperatures, and fund liquidation, so the true driver is probably a combination of the three along with other factors. Re...
Market Commentary
Improving corn conditions and presidential tweets noting that China has not purchased any agricultural goods sent the markets lower overnight. The tweets suggested there has been little progress negotiating a trade deal, and traders are worried the president may be getting ready to apply more t...
Market Commentary
CBOT ag markets traded mostly higher today with a growing feeling that positions are being exited and new longs/shorts avoided. Volume was largely below average with little news to spark excitement in any market. Favorable weekend weather across the Midwest helped crop development, and a positi...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was slightly weaker as the selling continued after yesterday’s disappointing close. Positions are being liquidated as summer weather forecasts improve, despite the fact that corn and soybeans are in rough shape across much of the U.S. The day session featured more...
Market Commentary
Agricultural commodity markets remained weak overall, and equities had a down day too. Wheat had some gains, but much of the complexes went south. Expectations for U.S. export sales were low, and the report mostly did not disappoint. However, wheat export sales were much better than expected as...
Market Commentary
Today was all about improved weather forecasts for the Midwest. Weekend showers across the upper Midwest offered a modest reprieve from the extreme heat, although reports of leaf roll in the corn crop are still notable. Fortunately, the six-10-day weather forecast features dryness but with mild...
Market Commentary
Soybeans quickly moved into the green during overnight trading and extended those gains early this morning. November soybeans finished that session 9.75 cents higher, which lent modest support to corn (up 1.75 cents) and wheat (September SRW up 2.25) futures as well. The day session featured st...
Market Commentary
It was mostly a risk-off day as the prospects for better Midwest weather combined with continued technical selling sent prices lower. It may not be the bottom, but there may be hesitancy to get too far out ahead of the “real” prevented planting number. Moreover, it is still hot, and...
Market Commentary
Modest volume in overnight trading featured mostly lower prices before the market turned higher heading into the morning break. Corn, soybean, and wheat futures all finished that session with 3-5 cent gains. The day session opened with notable buy corn/sell soybeans action that left the soy com...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw continued selling from Monday’s weaker day with soybeans leading the way lower to losses in excess of 10 cents. Soymeal was also hit hard, while corn and wheat futures suffered more minor dips into the red. The Crop Progress report was somewhat comforting yesterday w...
Market Commentary
The CBOT fell modestly in overnight trading with soybeans and soymeal leading the way. Corn and wheat followed the soy complex lower to losses of a few pennies. The day session saw grains and oilseeds quickly come under pressure and again succumb to moderate losses. Some analysts placed the bla...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw corn and soybeans firmer on continuation of yesterday’s post-WASDE rally, while bulls were firmly in control during the day session. The trade is increasingly suspicious of USDA’s numbers and the use of satellite imagery, and other data is starting to overrule...
Market Commentary
The unique aspect going into today’s WASDE report was the diversity of issues and opinions about what it would say. Markets are especially uncertain due to competing narratives. On one hand, the market trades on USDA’s numbers as the most authoritative. The weather is now better, an...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was weaker with modest volume and choppy price action as the trade waits for tomorrow’s July WASDE. Open interest grew for corn, soybeans, and wheat as traders and commercials are apparently adding to positions ahead of the report. Midwest weather is warmer and features...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading found CBOT futures lower after yesterday’s rally in corn stalled at key moving average (MA) resistance and from yesterday’s technically weak close in wheat. Corn finished nearly 8 cents lower, while the soy complex bled into the red as well. Only wheat managed to f...
Market Commentary
At the macro level, the day started off with a strong U.S. jobs report that indicated 224,000 jobs were created in June. This reduced the chances that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates, which buoyed the U.S. dollar and caused equities to back off from the roaring gains of the past f...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw quiet consolidation as traders made final preparations for today’s USDA reports. There was little outside news to spark much movement, except for hot/dry weather in France keeping wheat prices slightly higher and better U.S. weather forecasts pressuring corn. The day...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw a modest rally as prices bounced back from yesterday’s daytime losses. Soybeans and wheat were the upside leaders with corn a reluctant follower. Today was the first position day for July futures, and tomorrow will start the delivery period. Given the recent strength...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading saw widespread pressure that continued yesterday’s turn lower. Corn fell 3.5 cents, soybeans lost 4 cents, SRW wheat dropped 4.75 cents, and HRW futures were 16.75 cents lower. Weather across the U.S. is looking more favorable for crop development, which is pressuring bu...
Market Commentary
The CBOT turned higher overnight as worse-than-expected crop condition ratings prompted traders to continue adding weather premia to the market. Corn and soybeans were the upside leaders with SRW wheat reluctantly following. HRW wheat fell 5.75 cents as decent harvest progress and flat cash pri...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were up overnight in a delayed reaction to Friday’s CFTC report. Soybeans led corn and soybeans higher on extended short covering. The weekend’s rainy weather didn’t bring traders any comfort and added fuel to the rally. The day session opened hig...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were mixed overnight in light trading volume that saw corn, wheat, and soybeans trade both sides of unchanged. Yesterday’s move higher on the charts should create a more bullish outlook, but the grains had trouble following through on that in the overnight se...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were mostly lower overnight as funds continued liquidating long positions and the latest weather forecast offered more moderate temperatures starting next week. Open interest figures reflected the liquidation with drops of 33,000 contracts for soybeans and 5,000 co...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were mostly lower overnight with the corn market’s recent support diminishing. Soybeans were choppy with headlines about a potential Trump/Xi meeting being balanced against the overall bearishness of soybean fundamentals. Overall, the market was characterized...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were weaker overnight as profit taking in corn and wheat pushed those markets lower. Soybeans were sold in sympathy with the grains, although soyoil posted modest gains on long soyoil/short soymeal spread trade. Agricultural and equity markets received a boost this...
News Impacts on Commodity Volatility
Researchers from Northwestern, Stanford, and the University of Chicago tracked equity market volatility with articles from eleven different newspapers, and they unsurprisingly found that trade policy had no impact on the market prior to the election of Donald Trump (see NBER Working Paper No. 2...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were higher overnight as continued rain across the Midwest threatens the corn and soybean crops. At this point, there are many fields that will simply go unplanted, while planted crops will deteriorate due to the excessive moisture. One potential problem is that th...
Market Commentary
The markets were slightly firmer overnight but then caught a little fire this morning. It is starting to seem that those in the corn market are considering the possibility that the 2019 U.S. crop could fall below 13 billion bushels. There is also more concern now that not all the soybean acres...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were higher overnight with large volumes traded. July corn traded over 95,000 contracts, July soybeans saw volume near 22,000 contracts, and July SRW wheat swapped 12,000 contracts. The overnight move higher in heavy volume was hugely important in setting the stage...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy complex futures were lower overnight in a correction from yesterday’s WASDE-induced move higher. There was little fresh news last night, but additional commercial hedges were placed after yesterday’s strong gains. The day session found significant short covering in soy...
Market Commentary
Today’s trading revolved around the June WASDE report with corn, soybeans and wheat lower before its release as traders anticipated only minor changes to the U.S. balance sheets. Corn moved swiftly higher after the report was issued, however, as USDA surprised the market by drastically cu...
Market Commentary
Consolidation was the word of the day ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE report. Corn finished slightly higher for the most part, while soybeans and wheat added a few pennies’ value. There was notable short covering in the soy complex as traders evened their positions after several days of l...
Market Commentary
Ag futures attempted an overnight rally, but none (except for corn) were able to overcome yesterday’s highs. The inability of bulls to push the market above that point led to a weaker opening in slow trade this morning. Weather remains a focus, but with mostly improved conditions across t...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean futures were both lower overnight, while wheat futures found support after consecutive down days. The forecast remains favorable for spring crop planting and development, and USDA’s recent announcement that prevented planting acres will be ineligible for Market Facilitati...
Market Commentary
Weather forecasts run yesterday afternoon and evening continue to show a drying trend across the Corn Belt, which led futures lower overnight. The worst of the planting-delaying weather seems to be over, and fresh forecasts are broadly encouraging. Overnight pressure also came from news that ho...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was mixed with corn and soybeans firmer, while wheat dropped lower. However, the volume of trade was large, which speaks to the importance of the Crop Progress reports this year. If USDA’s March acreage figures are correct, yesterday’s report suggests there are 30...
Market Commentary
The weather is supposed to improve over the northern part of the Midwest, allowing a robust planting opportunity, and speculators opened the day by initially selling corn for that reason as well as concern over the trade spat with Mexico. Wheat prices remained firm, which initially held corn up...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was mostly lower on technical trades, the fact that short covering seems to have ended for the week, and a new trade war. The president announced late Thursday that the U.S. would apply a 5 percent tariff on goods imported from Mexico, which will be gradually increased to 25 p...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade featured prices on both sides of unchanged in heavy volume (well, heavy for an overnight session). Corn attempted to break below yesterday’s low but failed, which brought more buying heading into the morning. At the close, corn, soybean and wheat futures were all higher. T...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s crop progress report was gasoline on the fire for futures markets. The corn planting figure was lower than expected with key growing states (Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio) well behind their typical paces. More concerningly, soybean planting is also behind schedule, perhaps indic...
Market Commentary
Trading for the holiday-shortened week started with grains in the green during the overnight session as the wet U.S. weather pattern remained in place over the weekend. Corn farmers are quickly running into the final planting dates for crop insurance eligibility, and the odds of 5 million or mo...
Market Commentary
The markets firmed up overnight following yesterday’s sell-off. The latter was generated by too many analysts trying to pick apart the administration’s latest confusing proposal to send more money to farmers because of the trade problem with China. None of that has anything to do wi...
Market Commentary
Overnight trade was light as the markets were largely waiting for this morning’s export sales report data. Before it was issued, corn, wheat, and soybean futures were slightly higher. The report, however, was bearish old crop corn and soybeans, which meant the overnight session ended with...
Market Commentary
Grains were lower overnight in consolidative trade after Tuesday’s rally. July corn finished the session down 4 cents, July soybeans added 2 cents, and July SRW wheat finished 7.25 cents lower. Open interest in corn continues to grow with 18,000 contracts added yesterday, while soybean op...
Market Commentary
Active overnight trade pushed the CBOT higher with corn up 6.75 cents, soybeans up 7.75 cents and Chicago wheat up 8.5 cents before the morning session’s open. The catalyst for this was, of course, USDA’s confirmation yesterday afternoon that the current corn crop is the most delaye...
Market Commentary
The U.S. Corn Belt and much of the northern Plains had a very wet and cold weekend, and there is more rain on the way (see five-day precipitation forecast map below). We stated last Friday that markets would be going higher if the wet forecasts were confirmed, and that is what they did today...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat futures maintained their winning ways today on more wet weather across the Corn Belt. 1-2 inches of rainfall were common across Iowa today, and there is a great deal of heavy rain in the five-day forecast. NOAA released its updated long-lead forecasts, which show June and July wi...
Market Commentary
After yesterday’s pause, grain markets shot higher today and pulled the soy complex along for the ride. The weather remains a focus with fund short covering and commercial hedge buying contributing to the rally. While the fundamentals (as most recently reported by USDA) remain bear...
Market Commentary
In market analysis, technical indicators and chart patterns often precede major changes in fundamental supply/demand relationships. One theory why this occurs is that the collective wisdom of the market recognizes small but important changes in the fundamentals before they have exerted their ev...
Market Commentary
The breaking off of U.S.-Chinese talks late last week led to what appeared to be market exhaustion overnight and early Monday morning as new contract lows were set. But in a reversal, prices pulled themselves up and well above those lows by Monday’s close. That technical signal and USDA&r...
Market Commentary
Markets opened weak again Sunday evening. Corn and soybeans were down 3-4 cents and 8-9 cents, respectively. Meanwhile, wheat was 3 cents lower in KC while down 1-2 cents in Chicago and Minneapolis. The lower prices reflected the lack of any apparent progress in U.S.-China trade talks last Frid...
Market Commentary
Markets traded mostly steady overnight and until the USDA WASDE was released at noon (EDT) today. Both the 2018/19 revisions and the first look at 2019/20 were bearish for corn, wheat and soybeans. That initially sent corn and wheat futures down 5-6 cents, while soybeans dropped 1-2 cents. The...
Market Commentary
One way or another, today’s grain and soy futures market action was all about China and the critical negotiations that began later this afternoon. We call them critical because in the current acrimonious atmosphere, the results of the meetings today and Friday will probably determine whet...
Market Commentary
The latest volleys in the U.S.-China trade war kept markets on the defensive today. CBOT products were slightly higher in light trading overnight as some mild short covering helped the markets inch higher. Open interest is declining for corn, soybeans, and wheat – indicating that funds ar...
Market Commentary
For all the political turbulence surrounding the trade dispute with China, the scheduled increase in tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods and other related matters, grain and soy markets were rather quiet overnight and again today. Price movements were measured with trading volume average a...
Market Commentary
Markets opened with sharp losses overnight following President Trump’s weekend tweet that he will increase tariffs against China from the current 10 percent to 25 percent by Friday. This suddenly changed the China trade agreement discussion from what most had believed was a done deal to p...
No China Trade Deal?
The grain trade returned to work last night with the strong possibility that the much-anticipated trade deal with China might not happen. This was based on President Trump’s weekend tweet that he will increase tariffs on Chinese imports from 10 percent to 25 percent. This sent grain and o...
Market Commentary
Markets traded relatively thinly to close out the week today, although volume earlier this week was quite strong. The China trade talks will resume again next week. While people are hopeful a deal is close, they won’t trade that until it is done. Weather remains a very real problem across...
Market Commentary
With yesterday’s May Day celebrants back at work today, trading volume for grain and soy markets picked up and will probably be above the recent average. Basically, it was a tale of two markets today. The grains were stronger, but the soy complex was hammered again. Weekly export sales fo...
Market Commentary
The meeting between U.S. and Chinese trade officials in Beijing concluded earlier than expected today and is scheduled to resume in Washington next week. This early adjournment could be read as either a good or a bad sign. Markets took it as a good sign, especially when the financial press repo...
Market Commentary
The U.S. trade delegation is a meeting with its Chinese counterpart in Beijing today, and what have become the usual optimistic noises from both sides are being heard. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is quoted as saying he hopes that negotiations will be wrapped up when Vice-Premier Liu and his team...
Market Commentary
The beat goes on (just more slowly). Corn and wheat prices were slightly higher overnight with soybeans slightly lower. That’s how the market opened this morning and then traded through much of the session to finish the week. Corn did catch a little fire, though, and its strength was like...
Market Commentary
Finally, some stability seemed to creep into grain and soy futures markets – a least for a day. Prices stayed rather close to yesterday’s closes in overnight trade, and they even managed to finish mostly in the green as the day session ended. To be sure, they were unable to hang on...
Market Commentary
Statistics Canada released its initial estimates, which are based on surveys conducted last month, of planted area for 2019. Much like the U.S., they show a decline in oilseed plantings and an increase for grains. With the de facto Chinese embargo on Canadian canola weighing heavily on prices,...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy prices chopped slightly around either side of unchanged in overnight trade, giving rise to thoughts that those markets might be able to muster up a Turnaround Tuesday. However, it was not to be. Renewed fund selling of corn and soybean contracts kept prices under pressure througho...
Market Commentary
Grain and oilseed markets came back from the long Easter holiday weekend in a slightly bearish mode overnight and today with wheat the weakest. Weather forecasts are starting to look better as May approaches. If they prove to be accurate, corn and soybean planting should catch up quickly. That...
Market Commentary
Note: CME grain and soy markets are closed tomorrow (Friday) and will re-open Easter Sunday evening. U.S. government offices will be open tomorrow, however, and regularly scheduled reports such as the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders (COT) report will be released then. U.S trade negotiators a...
Market Commentary
After yesterday’s lashing, the grain and soy futures markets tried to rally during the overnight session. Corn and soybeans gained a few cents, and wheat, which took the worst beating, regained several cents. However, the rally effort was not able to generate any momentum, and it had fade...
Market Commentary
For the second day of this holiday-shortened week, the overnight session produced minor losses for grain and the soy complex amid extremely light trading volume. However, that did not adequately prepare traders for what happened during the day session. Wheat and corn markets were pummeled by mo...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading had corn and soybean markets higher with wheat markets slightly lower, and the only thing that changed during today’s session was an extension of those gains and losses. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin’s positive comments on the China trade deal from over the weekend se...
Market Commentary
Trading volume was light today. Corn and wheat were slightly lower through most of the day, while soybeans traded a penny or two higher for a brief time and then returned to fractionally lower levels or unchanged by the close. There were no export sales announcements today. Yesterday’s we...
Market Commentary
Soybeans and corn were about unchanged in low volume overnight trading, while wheat was up a couple of pennies. The market was waiting for the export sales report, although it was not expected to cause any excitement. The spring blizzard pummeling Nebraska, South Dakota and southern Minnesota w...
Market Commentary
Such changes as were made in yesterday’s April WASDE were uniformly bearish – lower use, larger stocks, bigger South American production, more competition for U.S. grain and soy exports, etc. However, the report contained little that was not expected. Grain and soy markets hardly re...
Market Commentary
The April 2019 WASDE was mostly neutral the grains complex but bullish soyoil as USDA’s changes offered few surprises. The CBOT had a weaker tone before the report’s release, largely due to better-than-expected winter wheat conditions and a 2 percent planting progress for corn. That...
Market Commentary
Grain and oilseeds markets were mixed to start the week in the Sunday night session. Soybeans traded slightly higher through most of the night with corn steady and wheat lower. Overnight volume was average. This week’s big news will be USDA’s April WASDE (supply and demand), set to...
Market Commentary
Markets were weak overnight and more so today as the trade again grew weary of all the positive talk regarding the U.S. China dispute with still no real deal. President Trump commented that “we’re not there yet” on a final agreement, and he also said farmers will be very happy...
Market Commentary
It is a waiting game. Agricultural interests of nearly every variety hope that this afternoon’s meeting between Chinese Vice-Premier Liu and President Trump will end with an announcement of a trade deal. Such an announcement would likely also include word of a meeting between Trump and Ch...
Market Commentary
It was another day of quiet, low volume, wait-and-see trade in grain and soy complex futures. Prices were a bit higher across the board overnight, but they turned to more of a mixed stance during the day session as most contracts traded on both sides of Tuesday’s closes. At the end, Chica...
Market Commentary
There was an effort to continue yesterday’s rally overnight. However, enthusiasm faded rather quickly as markets settled into mundane trade with soybeans holding a couple of cents higher and wheat turning down a like amount. That left corn in the middle and about unchanged. The day sessio...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean markets found small measures of support in the Sunday night session, while wheat was mostly steady. Volume was good overnight, especially in corn. Last Friday’s USDA numbers were simply bearish for the corn market and neutral to slightly positive for wheat and soybeans. M...
Market Commentary
The U.S. farm economy didn’t find any relief on the immediate horizon in today’s USDA acreage and quarterly stocks estimates (see today’s separate analysis for details), and corn got hammered as soon as they were released. More optimistic talk about a trade deal with China did...
Market Commentary
As expected on the day before major USDA reports, overnight trading volume in grain and soy futures was subdued. In price action, soybeans were 2-3 cents higher, wheat was 6-7 cents lower, and corn was near unchanged. This same price pattern was maintained through the first half of the day sess...
Market Commentary
Last night’s session produced a story similar to that told by overnight trade of grain and soy futures for much of the last few weeks – mixed price action, limited price movement and low trading volume. Corn and soybeans were 1-2 cents lower, while wheat managed to hang onto a small...
Market Commentary
It was another very quiet start to the week overnight with soybeans slightly higher, corn steady and wheat slightly lower. Markets opened steady across the board this morning but found some buying in the first hour of the session that took prices to 3-5 cent gains. The major weekend news was al...
Market Commentary
Corn and wheat markets were firm overnight, while the soy complex was weaker. That was the pattern for much of today’s markets as well. Cool, wet weather and perhaps the worst flooding across parts of the Corn Belt ever are elevating concerns about a slow start to the corn planting season...
Market Commentary
The overnight session continued the recent trend of low trading volume and narrow, mixed price movement. This occurred as traders await developments from next week’s high level trade negotiations in Beijing as well as the 29 March quarterly stocks and initial acreage reports from USDA. Ac...
Market Commentary
It has been more low and slow trade overnight and again today. Wheat is the star of the day with the May contracts for Chicago and KC both closing up 8.25 cents and that for MGEX finishing 6.25 cents higher. Low trading volume can often result in abrupt and sharp price movements as market order...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading was a mixed and low volume affair. The grains were slightly higher, and soybeans were just below Monday’s close. None of the lead contracts were able to muster as much as 10,000 contracts of trading volume. The day session began with a modest rally effort, but that did n...
Market Commentary
Markets were weaker to start the Sunday evening session, and that negative trading pattern persisted throughout today. As another analyst wrote, the market is starving for news of any kind. China talk continues to dominate the markets’ attitude and direction. There was more chatter over t...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean markets were steady to slightly higher overnight with wheat 1-2 cents lower. Soybean futures led the markets all higher this morning on another round of positive news surrounding the China/U.S. trade talks. It seems that most are now convinced an agreement is near. This belief...
Market Commentary
Traders showed more interest in the overnight session. Volume was not back to Tuesday’s level, but it was notably higher than Wednesday’s. Pricewise, the results were mixed. Grains were steady to firm, but soybeans traded mostly lower. A wire service reported late in the overnight s...
Market Commentary
NASS has decided to no longer conduct actual field surveys in compiling production and yield estimates for corn and soybeans in the August WASDE as they are deemed too early at that time to be very meaningful. It will instead only use farmer surveys, weather/yield models and satellite data. Fie...
Market Commentary
It was a vivid “Turnaround Tuesday” for grain and soy markets after Monday’s dive to test recent lows and, in some case, set new record lows. It began rather gradually in the overnight session, which saw trading volume notably higher than average. Prices started out slightly l...
Market Commentary
Corn, wheat and soybean started ever so slightly firmer Sunday evening and then traded mixed the rest of the night. All the markets started today’s session lower, and the losses mounted as the day wore on. There just isn’t any fundamental news out to ignite even a minor short-coveri...
Market Commentary
Markets tried to be slightly better overnight and this morning in hope that today’s USDA’s reports might contain some positive news. There was nothing in the WASDE that could be considered even slightly bullish. It was the opposite as ending supplies for U.S. wheat and corn were hig...
Market Commentary
Overnight trading volume improved, but price movement was limited. Corn and wheat were lower, while soybeans firmed by a few cents ahead of the trading recess. Yesterday’s changes in open interest showed increases of 22,141 contracts of corn, 16,889 soybean contracts and 7,789 contracts o...
Market Commentary
Yesterday’s firmer market did not have the legs to carry over into the night session. Grain and soybean values turned lower in overnight trade with corn futures down a fraction, soybeans off 1-2 cents and Chicago wheat down about 4 cents. Trading volume was again quite low. The price weak...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy markets were soft overnight with corn, wheat and soybeans trading slightly below Tuesday’s close. Trading volume was quite low. The day session found wheat taking an unusual bounce higher, but corn managed only a small gain. Soybeans slipped a couple of cents, and soy produc...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean futures were higher in the Sunday evening session with wheat steady, and that is the way the market opened this morning as well. There was renewed optimism that the U.S. and China are very close to reaching an agreement on trade. President Trump has reportedly asked the Chinese...
Market Commentary
Corn was steady, soybeans were higher, and wheat was lower overnight in light trading volume. Everything was then lower after the first hour of the day session. The U.S. and China are reportedly close to reaching agreement on at least the initial phases of a trade deal, and there might be a sig...
Market Commentary
Grain and soy futures were mixed overnight with wheat trying to rally (again), soybeans a bit weaker and corn stuck in between. Trading volume was not impressive. Price weakness became more pervasive during the day session in light volume. At the close, only soyoil and MGEX wheat futures were h...
Market Commentary
Corn and soybean futures prices were fractionally firmer overnight, while wheat prices sought to recover at least a sliver of their February losses. Chicago wheat was up about 5 cents heading into the early morning trading recess. Later in the morning, traders were tuned into the testimony on C...