Recent Farm Inputs Analysis
State of USMCA Talks: Progress with Mexico, Canada Stalled
On Saturday, 10 October, at a campaign rally in Clarksville, Tennessee, President Trump said that the U.S. and Mexico would come to terms on a new trade deal, and he said Canada does not need to be part of the deal. Trump called the coming agreement with Mexico “great” but gave no d...
Executive Order and G7 Actions on Diesel Fuel
In a letter last week to President Trump, Zippy Duvall, president of the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), wrote that diesel prices are squeezing farmers’ margins. As Duvall wrote: Higher diesel expenses are hitting farmers at one of the most fuel-intensive times of the year —...
Energy Markets and the Slowly Disappearing Diesel Export Ban Proposal
There was encouraging news over the weekend: the White House may reject the misguided idea on Capitol Hill to ban U.S. diesel exports. What WPI has noted previously was perhaps best put by a Department of Energy report of 2022, under the Biden administration: Petroleum liquids markets are globa...
Diesel Fuel Costs, One Acre at a Time
Key Takeaways: Diesel accounts for about 64 percent of U.S. farm fuel spending. For farmers, the pressing question is what a higher price adds to each field operation. Iowa farm diesel averaged $5.50/gallon in September, compared with the $2.89/gallon Iowa State assumed for its February machin...
The Farm at the Edge of the World: American Agriculture and a Global Reckoning
Key Takeaways: The United States shifted from a decades-long agricultural trade surplus to a growing deficit, reaching roughly forty-one to forty-four billion dollars in recent fiscal years, a structural change rather than a cyclical dip. Brazil has overtaken the United States as the leading s...
Higher Interest Rates Put More Pressure on Farm Margins
Key Takeaways: Higher interest rates increase the cost of financing agricultural production, reducing farm margins without providing any corresponding increase in production or revenue. The financial impact of higher rates varies considerably by operation, with highly leveraged producers and t...
Senate Moves Farm Bill, but That May Be Not Enough
Last week, the Senate Ag Committee passed the farm bill on a party-line vote upon the return of Senators Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) and Tommy Tuberville (R-Alabama), who missed the vote on 6 August (see WPI coverage here) when it failed by a similar party-line vote, 10-11. Democrats held the...
Fertilizer Shock: Concentration, Competition and the Cartel Question
What You Need to Know: U.S. fertilizer production is highly concentrated, but concentration alone does not establish that producers are operating as a cartel. Imports introduce competition unevenly: they supply nearly all U.S. potash consumption but play much smaller roles in domestic ammonia...
Livestock Round Up: USDA Plans to Expand Small and Very Small Beef Processors
Under an Executive Order on 4 September, USDA announced $50 million in new funding to help states establish or expand meat and poultry inspection programs as part of an effort to increase processing options for livestock producers. It’s called the Stand-Up Program, which will help states...
Another Try at Ag Labor Legislation
What You Need to Know: H-2A has become a principal agricultural labor channel: certifications increased from fewer than 117,000 in 2014 to 398,258 in 2025 and continued to rise in 2026. The proposed Securing Agriculture’s Workforce Act (SAWA) would open H-2A to year-round operations and...
USDA Reports - The Real Divide in American Agriculture Isn't Who Has the Data — It's Who Can Afford to Read It
Key Takeaways: USDA data access is equal; the ability to use it is not. Larger operations can afford experts who turn public reports into business decisions. Analytical capacity is the true advantage. Forecasts matter only when converted into profit, purchasing, and risk-management decisions...
Time Running Out: Fly In for the Farm Bill, North American Trade
The Senate will reconvene today after a late August recess and will adjourn in early October, in about 3 to 4 weeks. The farm bill will move front and center on the agenda. A major fly-in is scheduled for today and Tuesday, with the goal of hitting all Senate offices. Groups participating in th...
Implications of $100+ per Barrel Crude Oil on Agriculture
Key Takeaways: The significance of $100-per-barrel crude depends largely on how long prices remain elevated, as sustained high energy costs are more likely to influence longer-term agricultural decisions. Higher crude oil prices raise farm production costs most directly through diesel, while a...
Glyphoscience and Glyphoeconomics
It is hard to have a productive conversation about agricultural pesticide use. The subject carries so much ideological baggage that raising it can invite an argument—or bring the conversation to an uncomfortable silence. Glyphosate, the active ingredient most closely associated with the R...
New Louisiana Plant to Boost U.S. Phosphate Fertilizer Production
Key Takeaways: CHS and OCP plan to invest up to $450 million in a Louisiana phosphate fertilizer facility capable of producing more than 1 MMT annually, marking the first new U.S. plant of its kind in more than 40 years. The facility could reduce U.S. dependence on imported finished phosphate...
An Exploration of the Colorado River and Its Many Legal and Economic Canyons
You cannot escape the vortex of opinions about water scarcity in the Western United States, especially in the drought-stricken Colorado River Basin. Agriculture is the villain in many of these editorials. Agriculture uses too much water, so it should use less, is the refrain. We all wish it was...
Cow-Calf Profit Outlook Falls Amid Shifting Economics
Key Takeaways: Expected returns to production for U.S. cow-calf producers have shifted lower from prior forecasts as cattle values fall and feed costs rise. Producer revenues are forecast 4–5 percent below our July outlook and will be 3 percent below 2025 levels. Costs are quickly...
The Netherlands: An Unlikely Agricultural Powerhouse
Key Takeaways: Despite its limited farmland, the Netherlands is a major agricultural exporter, focusing on high-value products such as dairy, flowers, meat, and vegetables. The Port of Rotterdam makes the Netherlands a major European agricultural trade hub, supporting significant processing an...
Gene Editing Offers a New Path for Crop Development
Key Takeaways: Gene editing makes targeted changes to a plant’s existing DNA, while genetic modification can introduce genetic material from another organism to create traits not naturally present in the crop. Gene editing is unlikely to replace genetic modification entirely, as the two...
What Makes a Beef Processing Plant Vulnerable to Closure?
Key Takeaways: With cattle supplies historically tight and packer margins deeply negative, beef processors are reducing excess slaughter capacity, with decisions over which plants to close driven by cattle availability, operating efficiency, and the ability to maintain high utilization rates...
Brazil’s Reliance on Imported Fertilizer Is a Potential Weak Link
Key Takeaways: Brazil’s growing role in global agriculture is accompanied by a major vulnerability: the country imports approximately 88 percent of its fertilizer needs. High natural gas costs and development challenges have limited domestic nitrogen and potash production despite Brazil&...
Fertilizer’s Bullish Outlook for 2027
Unlike the 2022 fertilizer shock, today’s disruption is rooted less in rerouted trade flows and more in damaged production capacity, raw material constraints and uncertain recovery timelines. That makes this a longer-duration risk for U.S. agricultural producers and retailers who must sec...
Agricultural Investment: More Than Commodity Prices
Last week we reviewed an overlooked measure: agricultural productive capital. Using some Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data, we developed an index of gross capital investment, which showed a major investment surge in agricultural equipment purchases in 2012–2014. Farm investments peak...
Fertilizer Outlook
Easing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, assuming the ceasefire holds, should bring fertilizer prices down, but it could be years before that actually occurs because fertilizer price shocks resulted from not one, but two wars in or near the heart of global fertilizer production. Those wars resu...
State of USMCA Talks: Progress with Mexico, Canada Stalled
On Saturday, 10 October, at a campaign rally in Clarksville, Tennessee, President Trump said that the U.S. and Mexico would come to terms on a new trade deal, and he said Canada does not need to be part of the deal. Trump called the coming agreement with Mexico “great” but gave no d...
Executive Order and G7 Actions on Diesel Fuel
In a letter last week to President Trump, Zippy Duvall, president of the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), wrote that diesel prices are squeezing farmers’ margins. As Duvall wrote: Higher diesel expenses are hitting farmers at one of the most fuel-intensive times of the year —...
Energy Markets and the Slowly Disappearing Diesel Export Ban Proposal
There was encouraging news over the weekend: the White House may reject the misguided idea on Capitol Hill to ban U.S. diesel exports. What WPI has noted previously was perhaps best put by a Department of Energy report of 2022, under the Biden administration: Petroleum liquids markets are globa...
Diesel Fuel Costs, One Acre at a Time
Key Takeaways: Diesel accounts for about 64 percent of U.S. farm fuel spending. For farmers, the pressing question is what a higher price adds to each field operation. Iowa farm diesel averaged $5.50/gallon in September, compared with the $2.89/gallon Iowa State assumed for its February machin...
The Farm at the Edge of the World: American Agriculture and a Global Reckoning
Key Takeaways: The United States shifted from a decades-long agricultural trade surplus to a growing deficit, reaching roughly forty-one to forty-four billion dollars in recent fiscal years, a structural change rather than a cyclical dip. Brazil has overtaken the United States as the leading s...
Higher Interest Rates Put More Pressure on Farm Margins
Key Takeaways: Higher interest rates increase the cost of financing agricultural production, reducing farm margins without providing any corresponding increase in production or revenue. The financial impact of higher rates varies considerably by operation, with highly leveraged producers and t...
Senate Moves Farm Bill, but That May Be Not Enough
Last week, the Senate Ag Committee passed the farm bill on a party-line vote upon the return of Senators Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) and Tommy Tuberville (R-Alabama), who missed the vote on 6 August (see WPI coverage here) when it failed by a similar party-line vote, 10-11. Democrats held the...
Fertilizer Shock: Concentration, Competition and the Cartel Question
What You Need to Know: U.S. fertilizer production is highly concentrated, but concentration alone does not establish that producers are operating as a cartel. Imports introduce competition unevenly: they supply nearly all U.S. potash consumption but play much smaller roles in domestic ammonia...
Livestock Round Up: USDA Plans to Expand Small and Very Small Beef Processors
Under an Executive Order on 4 September, USDA announced $50 million in new funding to help states establish or expand meat and poultry inspection programs as part of an effort to increase processing options for livestock producers. It’s called the Stand-Up Program, which will help states...
Another Try at Ag Labor Legislation
What You Need to Know: H-2A has become a principal agricultural labor channel: certifications increased from fewer than 117,000 in 2014 to 398,258 in 2025 and continued to rise in 2026. The proposed Securing Agriculture’s Workforce Act (SAWA) would open H-2A to year-round operations and...
USDA Reports - The Real Divide in American Agriculture Isn't Who Has the Data — It's Who Can Afford to Read It
Key Takeaways: USDA data access is equal; the ability to use it is not. Larger operations can afford experts who turn public reports into business decisions. Analytical capacity is the true advantage. Forecasts matter only when converted into profit, purchasing, and risk-management decisions...
Time Running Out: Fly In for the Farm Bill, North American Trade
The Senate will reconvene today after a late August recess and will adjourn in early October, in about 3 to 4 weeks. The farm bill will move front and center on the agenda. A major fly-in is scheduled for today and Tuesday, with the goal of hitting all Senate offices. Groups participating in th...
Implications of $100+ per Barrel Crude Oil on Agriculture
Key Takeaways: The significance of $100-per-barrel crude depends largely on how long prices remain elevated, as sustained high energy costs are more likely to influence longer-term agricultural decisions. Higher crude oil prices raise farm production costs most directly through diesel, while a...
Glyphoscience and Glyphoeconomics
It is hard to have a productive conversation about agricultural pesticide use. The subject carries so much ideological baggage that raising it can invite an argument—or bring the conversation to an uncomfortable silence. Glyphosate, the active ingredient most closely associated with the R...
New Louisiana Plant to Boost U.S. Phosphate Fertilizer Production
Key Takeaways: CHS and OCP plan to invest up to $450 million in a Louisiana phosphate fertilizer facility capable of producing more than 1 MMT annually, marking the first new U.S. plant of its kind in more than 40 years. The facility could reduce U.S. dependence on imported finished phosphate...
An Exploration of the Colorado River and Its Many Legal and Economic Canyons
You cannot escape the vortex of opinions about water scarcity in the Western United States, especially in the drought-stricken Colorado River Basin. Agriculture is the villain in many of these editorials. Agriculture uses too much water, so it should use less, is the refrain. We all wish it was...
Cow-Calf Profit Outlook Falls Amid Shifting Economics
Key Takeaways: Expected returns to production for U.S. cow-calf producers have shifted lower from prior forecasts as cattle values fall and feed costs rise. Producer revenues are forecast 4–5 percent below our July outlook and will be 3 percent below 2025 levels. Costs are quickly...
The Netherlands: An Unlikely Agricultural Powerhouse
Key Takeaways: Despite its limited farmland, the Netherlands is a major agricultural exporter, focusing on high-value products such as dairy, flowers, meat, and vegetables. The Port of Rotterdam makes the Netherlands a major European agricultural trade hub, supporting significant processing an...
Gene Editing Offers a New Path for Crop Development
Key Takeaways: Gene editing makes targeted changes to a plant’s existing DNA, while genetic modification can introduce genetic material from another organism to create traits not naturally present in the crop. Gene editing is unlikely to replace genetic modification entirely, as the two...
What Makes a Beef Processing Plant Vulnerable to Closure?
Key Takeaways: With cattle supplies historically tight and packer margins deeply negative, beef processors are reducing excess slaughter capacity, with decisions over which plants to close driven by cattle availability, operating efficiency, and the ability to maintain high utilization rates...
Brazil’s Reliance on Imported Fertilizer Is a Potential Weak Link
Key Takeaways: Brazil’s growing role in global agriculture is accompanied by a major vulnerability: the country imports approximately 88 percent of its fertilizer needs. High natural gas costs and development challenges have limited domestic nitrogen and potash production despite Brazil&...
Fertilizer’s Bullish Outlook for 2027
Unlike the 2022 fertilizer shock, today’s disruption is rooted less in rerouted trade flows and more in damaged production capacity, raw material constraints and uncertain recovery timelines. That makes this a longer-duration risk for U.S. agricultural producers and retailers who must sec...
Agricultural Investment: More Than Commodity Prices
Last week we reviewed an overlooked measure: agricultural productive capital. Using some Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data, we developed an index of gross capital investment, which showed a major investment surge in agricultural equipment purchases in 2012–2014. Farm investments peak...
Fertilizer Outlook
Easing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, assuming the ceasefire holds, should bring fertilizer prices down, but it could be years before that actually occurs because fertilizer price shocks resulted from not one, but two wars in or near the heart of global fertilizer production. Those wars resu...