Recent Soy & Oilseeds Analysis
Market Commentary: At the Crossroads of Pressure and Possibility
Markets are caught between reasons to keep selling and reasons to take another look. Fund liquidation and renewed peace talks are pressuring grains, while fresh export business and some diesel relief offer encouragement. Corn recovered nearly 10 cents from its low to finish higher, while soybea...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.6325/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.2825/bushel, down $0.15 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.4525/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $348.3/short ton, down $0.4...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12–16 October 2026 During the week in review, the Russian grain market began recovering after an extended decline driven largely by Black Sea logistics bottlenecks, a good crop and weaker global demand in traditional Russian markets. Russia is beginning to harvest c...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.62/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.4325/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.4825/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $348.7/short ton, down $6.1...
Market Commentary: Weaker Spread Trade Hints at Slack Demand, Triggers Fund Selling
What You Need to Know Today: Corn and soybeans were under heavy selling pressure as weaker (or at least as-expected) export demand runs into an accelerating harvest pace with more grain available in the spot market. Corn and soybean harvest progress remains below average across the U.S., espec...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Pakistan’s smaller wheat farmers have been holding protests to complain about the lack of a support price for wheat and the potential expansion of GMO crop production. They also want the reinstatement of PASSCO, the governme...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.67/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.5525/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.535/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $354.8/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Perceptions of Production Change as Harvest Advances
What You Need to Know Today: Harvest pressure in the U.S. sent corn and soybeans lower as supplies increased and there were signs USDA’s upward revisions to yields in the October WASDE could be close to right. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalated over the weekend, with Ukrai...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 19 October)
Developer's Note 24 August 2026: WPI recently completed an exercise that updated the codebase for this app and solved some of the discrepancies between our five-year average calculation and USDA's. There are a few lingering cases where early (late) starts (finishes) to the crop cycle resu...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Sunflower Sunflower remains one of the most attractive crops in Argentina, supported by strong demand and favorable prices that currently offer some of the best projected production margins among summer crops. Planted area is estimated at 3.0-3.1 Mha, with around 42 percent already se...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.7425/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.605/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.6125/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $357.1/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Another Big Soybean Purchase from China This Week
What You Need to Know Today: Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans continued to accelerate, with USDA reporting another 558 KMT sold to China and 236 KMT to unknown destinations. Combined with sales announced Wednesday and Thursday, the latest purchases bring the three-day total to approximately...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a net seller across agricultural markets for the fourth straight week, selling a net 119,000 contracts through Tuesday’s reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position by 13.1 percent. Corn accounted for 70 percent of the weekly selling, while funds also...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.78/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.7/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.63/bushel, down $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $359.8/short ton, down $4.7...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Slide Despite Renewed Chinese Buying as Crush Disappoints
What You Need to Know Today: After a period of limited activity, USDA reported a sizeable 613 KMT in soybean export sales, including 330 KMT to China and 283 KMT to unknown destinations, potentially also China. The purchases represent a meaningful pickup in demand and bring China closer to ful...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.8075/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.7325/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.7725/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $364.5/short ton, up $1.3 fr...
Market Commentary: A Strong Dollar & A Short Fuse
Inflation is back in the driver’s seat, and agriculture is getting pulled in two directions. A stronger dollar is pressuring grains despite fresh Chinese buying, while renewed Middle East attacks lift crude oil. Higher energy prices can support commodities, but they also raise expenses an...
European Market Analysis
Regional News European grocery stores have been targeted by cybersecurity attacks this week, with major retailers in France and the Netherlands affected. In France, major grocers, including Carrefour, Intermarché, and Coopérative U, all suffered attacks in which freezer and...
EPA Proposes Two Options for Reallocation of SRE RINs
Key Takeaways: The EPA has proposed reallocating 770 million RINs associated with Small Refinery Exemptions (SREs), either splitting the volume equally between 2026 and 2027 or assigning the full amount to 2027. The agency granted exemptions covering 1.76 billion RINs for 2025, substantially e...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5–9 October 2026 During the week in review Russian grain market remained relatively stable. The market finally realized that Black Sea trade may not resume soon so most of the trade calculations were done in the direction of Baltic Sea, Caspian Sea, Barents Sea and...
Market Commentary: Conflicting Ideas Abound
What You Need to Know Today: China’s state-run COFCO, in statements on Tuesday, implied that U.S. corn exports were currently uneconomical but hinted that the Middle Kingdom would import 3.5 MMT of the feed grain this year, with 1 MMT likely sourced from the U.S. Another drone attack has...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.8275/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.6925/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.8375/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $363.2/short ton, down $5...
Premium Vegetable Oils Fill a Niche in the Market
Key Takeaways: While soybean, palm, sunflower, and rapeseed oils dominate global vegetable oil markets, premium oils such as olive, avocado, coconut, and sesame command substantially higher prices due to their distinctive flavors, nutritional characteristics, and specialized culinary uses.. Ol...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s Ministry of Supply reports that it will begin the sale of imported wheat through the Egyptian Mercantile Exchange. Sales are expected to be mainly to private-sector flour mills and are intended to stabilize wheat and...
Market Commentary: CBOT Break Produces Flurry of Tenders; Markets Consolidate Amid Trader Debate
What You Need to Know Today: USDA reports are delayed until Tuesday due to the federal holiday on Monday. Over the weekend, President Trump announced a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Russia warmly welcomed and confirmed this ceasefire by conducting more strikes against Ukraine. Specific...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.83/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.7225/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.8775/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $368.7/short ton, up $3.1 f...
State of USMCA Talks: Progress with Mexico, Canada Stalled
On Saturday, 10 October, at a campaign rally in Clarksville, Tennessee, President Trump said that the U.S. and Mexico would come to terms on a new trade deal, and he said Canada does not need to be part of the deal. Trump called the coming agreement with Mexico “great” but gave no d...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Wheat Signs of El Niño are beginning to emerge across Argentina, with rainfall recorded across several key agricultural regions this week. The Core region's wheat crop has benefited particularly from these rains, alleviating previous moisture deficits and providing a firmer flo...
WASDE Soybeans - October 2026
USDA’s October WASDE outlook for 2026/27 U.S. soybeans increased ending stocks by 5 million bushels to 315 million. Prices are unchanged for 2026/27. The U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $12.00 per bushel; soybean meal and oil prices are projected at $340 per short ton and...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.7975/bushel, down $0.205 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.71/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.92/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $365.6/short ton, up $8 from...
Market Commentary: Corn Yield Above Expectations Shakes Outlook, Trump Announces Russian Diesel Deal
What You Need to Know Today: Markets got a surprise with a corn yield of 181.2 bushels/acre in the October WASDE, above the average estimate of 177.6 bushels/acre and up from USDA’s September estimate of 178.5 bushels/acre. Although stronger demand is expected to absorb some of the addit...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a net seller across agricultural markets for the third straight week, selling a net 43,000 contracts through Tuesday’s reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position to 911,000 contracts. Despite the modest overall selling, all three legs of the soy crush...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Vegoils
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.0025/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.8325/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.875/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $357.6/short ton, down $8...
Market Commentary: Grains Weaken Ahead of WASDE; Pork Cutout Hits Multi-Year Low
What You Need to Know Today: Attention is turning toward Friday's USDA WASDE report, with traders looking for updated corn and soybean production estimates and revisions to domestic and global supply-and-demand balances. The report could help establish a clearer direction for grain price...
Market Commentary: Yesterday’s Momentum, Today’s Test
Yesterday’s momentum is facing a tougher test today. Stocks and most grain markets have pulled back, while higher Treasury yields and a firmer dollar are making buyers work harder to defend the gains. Crude oil has turned lower, easing some immediate energy pressure, but the Fed minutes l...
WPI’s October WASDE Outlook
Key Takeaways: Corn prices will see support in 2026/27 and likely average $5.11/bushel for farm-gate values across the marketing year. Support for corn values comes from an 8 percent year-over-year reduction in supplies that is only partially offset by a 2 percent reduction in total use. Soybe...
Global Vegetable Oil Markets Face Mixed Signals
Key Takeaways: Global vegetable oil production continues to expand, but the major oils are being driven by very different supply, demand, and trade dynamics. Palm oil faces heavy near-term supply pressure from rising Malaysian inventories, while Indonesia’s B50 mandate and El Niño...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.02/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.865/bushel, down $0.1775 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.975/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $365.8/short ton, up $11 fro...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 September–2 October 2026 During September, the Russian grain market clearly divided between export demand in the Baltic and Caspian seas. While Caspian business is still developing, Baltic business is showing greater stability and is becoming an important indicat...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies as Crop Ratings Fall and Wheat Planting Stalls
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. corn condition ratings took a surprise turn for the worse in Monday’s report, with 54 percent rated good/excellent (down 3 percent). Dry weather in the U.S. Wheat Belt is stalling planting and causing concerns for the 2027 crop, in turn boosting futures...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.08/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.0425/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.03/bushel, up $0.2225 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $354.8/short ton, up $7.7 from ye...
Understanding the Difference Between Export Inspections and Export Sales
Key Takeaways: Export sales measure new commitments for future delivery, while export inspections provide a timelier gauge of grain that is physically moving through the export system. Sales and inspections often diverge from week to week because they measure different stages of the export pro...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Sri Lanka poultry producer associations say that the delay in approving maize imports is pushing prices for poultry meat and eggs higher. Producers have had to use rice for feed rather than maize due to a lack of supply, and many...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.9725/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.9225/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.8075/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $347.1/short ton, down $0.4...
Market Commentary: Global Grain Demand Grows; Brazil Election, Currency Swing Boosts Soybeans
What You Need to Know Today: The Brazilian real surged to start the week after a surprise election result in which right-wing Flavio Bolsonaro won the first round of the election. The swing in the U.S. dollar/Brazilian real (USD/BRL) exchange rate caused soybeans to jump sharply higher in earl...
Harvest Pressure: Why Grain Prices Often Weaken at Harvest
Key Takeaways: Harvest pressure is fundamentally a timing issue: supply arrives much faster than demand can adjust, creating temporary weakness that can occur across crops and regions. The intensity of that pressure depends less on crop size alone than on how quickly grain moves into the syste...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina Argentina’s wheat conditions improved following the latest round of rainfall. Around 34 percent of the crop is now at heading or later stages, with the first harvests starting in the north and early yields coming in above historical averages. The area rated Good to Excelle...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.9775/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.83/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.7825/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $347.5/short ton, down $5...
Market Commentary: Harvest Pressure Weighs on Grains, Diesel Could See Much-Needed Relief
What You Need to Know Today: The G7 agreed to release 100 million barrels of crude oil and fuel reserves over four months, with a substantial diesel release front-loaded into the first 20 days. The announcement initially pushed crude oil lower on Friday, although it later recovered a portion o...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a slight net seller across agricultural markets for the second straight week, selling a net 63,000 contracts through Tuesday’s reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position to 954,000 contracts. Despite the modest overall selling, soymeal reached a new r...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.0225/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.8275/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.84/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $353.3/short ton, down $3.6 from...
Market Commentary: Drier Weather Could Accelerate Soybean Harvest
What You Need to Know Today: A drier early-October forecast should help harvest accelerate across areas of the western Corn Belt that have been running behind, adding pressure to soybeans and soymeal today as concerns over near-term physical tightness begin to ease. Markets are still digesting...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.0075/bushel, down $0.2125 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.7575/bushel, down $0.17 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.93/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $356.9/short ton, down $2...
Market Commentary: Quarter & Month End Reality Checks
Markets are getting a quarter-end reality check as September comes to a close. Growth, inflation and interest rates remain central to the macro outlook, while tight diesel supplies keep pressure on the cost of moving goods. States are stepping in with relief, but policy changes alone cannot reb...
Higher Corn Stocks Contrast with Tighter Soybean Supplies
Key Takeaways: 1 September corn stocks totaled 2.095 billion bushels, 171 million above expectations and 544 million above last year, providing additional cushion for the 2026/27 balance sheet and potentially adding near-term pressure to prices. June-August corn disappearance increased just 10...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21–25 September 2026 During the third week of September, the Russian grain market remained bearish. For the first time since 2018, average 3rd-grade milling wheat prices dropped below RUB 10,000/t. This poses a serious threat to the Russian agricultural sector, as l...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.22/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.9275/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.9775/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $359/short ton, down $0.4 from y...
Market Commentary: Wet Midwest Weather, Grain Stocks Positioning Support CBOT
What You Need to Know Today: CBOT markets pared Monday’s sharp losses as traders booked short profits and adjusted positions ahead of the Grain Stocks report that USDA will release Wednesday afternoon. The 7-day QPF forecast from NOAA now shows heavy rain across the central and western C...
How Comparative Advantage Shapes Global Trade
Key Takeaways: Comparative advantage encourages countries to specialize in goods they can produce at a lower opportunity cost and rely on trade for others. Differences in climate, land, infrastructure, and technology help determine where agricultural commodities can be produced most efficientl...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iran is reported to have completed its rail link from the border with Afghanistan to the Iranian port of Chabahar on the Gulf of Oman — the link is expected to be fully operational in early 2027. This will be Afghanistan&rsq...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.23/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.8875/bushel, down $0.145 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.8825/bushel, down $0.3075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $359.4/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Everything but Soybeans
What You Need to Know Today: Last week’s Trump-Xi meetings included China agreeing to roll back $60 billion in tariffs on a huge swath of U.S. ag products, just notably not soybeans. The exclusion of soybeans from the tariff-reduction list means China’s state-run importers COFCO an...
U.S.-China Deal Delivers Tariff Relief, but Little for Soybeans
Key Takeaways: The U.S.-China agreement lowers tariffs on several U.S. agricultural products, but the lack of additional soybean commitments or greater certainty surrounding China’s existing 25 MMT purchase pledge made the deal a slight disappointment. Lower tariffs on U.S. corn are unli...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina Wheat crop conditions remain broadly favorable despite a week marked by frost and localized hailstorms. Currently, 94.6 percent of the crop is rated Normal to Excellent. The most severe storms were reported in central-northern Córdoba and central-eastern Entre Ríos...
Market Commentary: U.S.-China Talks Leave Markets Waiting for More
What You Need to Know Today: Headlines emerging from negotiations between President Trump and President Xi were relatively limited, with a more substantive announcement expected Monday. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer indicated that additional details related to agricultural trade cou...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.2825/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.0325/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.19/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $371/short ton, down $1.4 fr...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a slight net seller across agricultural markets for the second straight week, selling a net 3,200 contracts through Tuesday’s reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position to 1.017 million contracts. Despite the modest overall selling, soybeans and soyme...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.275/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.07/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.175/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $372.4/short ton, up $1.8 fr...
Market Commentary: Markets Await Xi-Trump Meeting Outcome, Export Sales Disappoint
What You Need to Know Today: Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived at the White House today as part of a highly anticipated three-day visit to the United States, marking his first visit to Washington in eleven years. Trade is expected to feature prominently in discussions with President Trump,...
The Farm at the Edge of the World: American Agriculture and a Global Reckoning
Key Takeaways: The United States shifted from a decades-long agricultural trade surplus to a growing deficit, reaching roughly forty-one to forty-four billion dollars in recent fiscal years, a structural change rather than a cyclical dip. Brazil has overtaken the United States as the leading s...
Market Commentary: At the Crossroads of Pressure and Possibility
Markets are caught between reasons to keep selling and reasons to take another look. Fund liquidation and renewed peace talks are pressuring grains, while fresh export business and some diesel relief offer encouragement. Corn recovered nearly 10 cents from its low to finish higher, while soybea...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.6325/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.2825/bushel, down $0.15 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.4525/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $348.3/short ton, down $0.4...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 12–16 October 2026 During the week in review, the Russian grain market began recovering after an extended decline driven largely by Black Sea logistics bottlenecks, a good crop and weaker global demand in traditional Russian markets. Russia is beginning to harvest c...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.62/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.4325/bushel, down $0.12 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.4825/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $348.7/short ton, down $6.1...
Market Commentary: Weaker Spread Trade Hints at Slack Demand, Triggers Fund Selling
What You Need to Know Today: Corn and soybeans were under heavy selling pressure as weaker (or at least as-expected) export demand runs into an accelerating harvest pace with more grain available in the spot market. Corn and soybean harvest progress remains below average across the U.S., espec...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Pakistan’s smaller wheat farmers have been holding protests to complain about the lack of a support price for wheat and the potential expansion of GMO crop production. They also want the reinstatement of PASSCO, the governme...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.67/bushel, down $0.0725 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.5525/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.535/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $354.8/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Perceptions of Production Change as Harvest Advances
What You Need to Know Today: Harvest pressure in the U.S. sent corn and soybeans lower as supplies increased and there were signs USDA’s upward revisions to yields in the October WASDE could be close to right. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalated over the weekend, with Ukrai...
WPI Crop Progress and Conditions App (Updated 19 October)
Developer's Note 24 August 2026: WPI recently completed an exercise that updated the codebase for this app and solved some of the discrepancies between our five-year average calculation and USDA's. There are a few lingering cases where early (late) starts (finishes) to the crop cycle resu...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Sunflower Sunflower remains one of the most attractive crops in Argentina, supported by strong demand and favorable prices that currently offer some of the best projected production margins among summer crops. Planted area is estimated at 3.0-3.1 Mha, with around 42 percent already se...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.7425/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.605/bushel, down $0.095 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.6125/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $357.1/short ton, down...
Market Commentary: Another Big Soybean Purchase from China This Week
What You Need to Know Today: Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans continued to accelerate, with USDA reporting another 558 KMT sold to China and 236 KMT to unknown destinations. Combined with sales announced Wednesday and Thursday, the latest purchases bring the three-day total to approximately...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a net seller across agricultural markets for the fourth straight week, selling a net 119,000 contracts through Tuesday’s reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position by 13.1 percent. Corn accounted for 70 percent of the weekly selling, while funds also...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.78/bushel, down $0.0275 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.7/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.63/bushel, down $0.1425 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $359.8/short ton, down $4.7...
Market Commentary: Soybeans Slide Despite Renewed Chinese Buying as Crush Disappoints
What You Need to Know Today: After a period of limited activity, USDA reported a sizeable 613 KMT in soybean export sales, including 330 KMT to China and 283 KMT to unknown destinations, potentially also China. The purchases represent a meaningful pickup in demand and bring China closer to ful...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.8075/bushel, down $0.02 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.7325/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.7725/bushel, down $0.065 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $364.5/short ton, up $1.3 fr...
Market Commentary: A Strong Dollar & A Short Fuse
Inflation is back in the driver’s seat, and agriculture is getting pulled in two directions. A stronger dollar is pressuring grains despite fresh Chinese buying, while renewed Middle East attacks lift crude oil. Higher energy prices can support commodities, but they also raise expenses an...
European Market Analysis
Regional News European grocery stores have been targeted by cybersecurity attacks this week, with major retailers in France and the Netherlands affected. In France, major grocers, including Carrefour, Intermarché, and Coopérative U, all suffered attacks in which freezer and...
EPA Proposes Two Options for Reallocation of SRE RINs
Key Takeaways: The EPA has proposed reallocating 770 million RINs associated with Small Refinery Exemptions (SREs), either splitting the volume equally between 2026 and 2027 or assigning the full amount to 2027. The agency granted exemptions covering 1.76 billion RINs for 2025, substantially e...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 5–9 October 2026 During the week in review Russian grain market remained relatively stable. The market finally realized that Black Sea trade may not resume soon so most of the trade calculations were done in the direction of Baltic Sea, Caspian Sea, Barents Sea and...
Market Commentary: Conflicting Ideas Abound
What You Need to Know Today: China’s state-run COFCO, in statements on Tuesday, implied that U.S. corn exports were currently uneconomical but hinted that the Middle Kingdom would import 3.5 MMT of the feed grain this year, with 1 MMT likely sourced from the U.S. Another drone attack has...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.8275/bushel, down $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.6925/bushel, down $0.03 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.8375/bushel, down $0.04 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $363.2/short ton, down $5...
Premium Vegetable Oils Fill a Niche in the Market
Key Takeaways: While soybean, palm, sunflower, and rapeseed oils dominate global vegetable oil markets, premium oils such as olive, avocado, coconut, and sesame command substantially higher prices due to their distinctive flavors, nutritional characteristics, and specialized culinary uses.. Ol...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Egypt’s Ministry of Supply reports that it will begin the sale of imported wheat through the Egyptian Mercantile Exchange. Sales are expected to be mainly to private-sector flour mills and are intended to stabilize wheat and...
Market Commentary: CBOT Break Produces Flurry of Tenders; Markets Consolidate Amid Trader Debate
What You Need to Know Today: USDA reports are delayed until Tuesday due to the federal holiday on Monday. Over the weekend, President Trump announced a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Russia warmly welcomed and confirmed this ceasefire by conducting more strikes against Ukraine. Specific...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.83/bushel, up $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.7225/bushel, up $0.0125 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.8775/bushel, down $0.0425 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $368.7/short ton, up $3.1 f...
State of USMCA Talks: Progress with Mexico, Canada Stalled
On Saturday, 10 October, at a campaign rally in Clarksville, Tennessee, President Trump said that the U.S. and Mexico would come to terms on a new trade deal, and he said Canada does not need to be part of the deal. Trump called the coming agreement with Mexico “great” but gave no d...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Wheat Signs of El Niño are beginning to emerge across Argentina, with rainfall recorded across several key agricultural regions this week. The Core region's wheat crop has benefited particularly from these rains, alleviating previous moisture deficits and providing a firmer flo...
WASDE Soybeans - October 2026
USDA’s October WASDE outlook for 2026/27 U.S. soybeans increased ending stocks by 5 million bushels to 315 million. Prices are unchanged for 2026/27. The U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $12.00 per bushel; soybean meal and oil prices are projected at $340 per short ton and...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.7975/bushel, down $0.205 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.71/bushel, down $0.1225 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.92/bushel, up $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $365.6/short ton, up $8 from...
Market Commentary: Corn Yield Above Expectations Shakes Outlook, Trump Announces Russian Diesel Deal
What You Need to Know Today: Markets got a surprise with a corn yield of 181.2 bushels/acre in the October WASDE, above the average estimate of 177.6 bushels/acre and up from USDA’s September estimate of 178.5 bushels/acre. Although stronger demand is expected to absorb some of the addit...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a net seller across agricultural markets for the third straight week, selling a net 43,000 contracts through Tuesday’s reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position to 911,000 contracts. Despite the modest overall selling, all three legs of the soy crush...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Vegoils
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.0025/bushel, down $0.0175 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.8325/bushel, down $0.0325 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.875/bushel, down $0.1 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $357.6/short ton, down $8...
Market Commentary: Grains Weaken Ahead of WASDE; Pork Cutout Hits Multi-Year Low
What You Need to Know Today: Attention is turning toward Friday's USDA WASDE report, with traders looking for updated corn and soybean production estimates and revisions to domestic and global supply-and-demand balances. The report could help establish a clearer direction for grain price...
Market Commentary: Yesterday’s Momentum, Today’s Test
Yesterday’s momentum is facing a tougher test today. Stocks and most grain markets have pulled back, while higher Treasury yields and a firmer dollar are making buyers work harder to defend the gains. Crude oil has turned lower, easing some immediate energy pressure, but the Fed minutes l...
WPI’s October WASDE Outlook
Key Takeaways: Corn prices will see support in 2026/27 and likely average $5.11/bushel for farm-gate values across the marketing year. Support for corn values comes from an 8 percent year-over-year reduction in supplies that is only partially offset by a 2 percent reduction in total use. Soybe...
Global Vegetable Oil Markets Face Mixed Signals
Key Takeaways: Global vegetable oil production continues to expand, but the major oils are being driven by very different supply, demand, and trade dynamics. Palm oil faces heavy near-term supply pressure from rising Malaysian inventories, while Indonesia’s B50 mandate and El Niño...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.02/bushel, down $0.06 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.865/bushel, down $0.1775 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.975/bushel, down $0.055 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $365.8/short ton, up $11 fro...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 28 September–2 October 2026 During September, the Russian grain market clearly divided between export demand in the Baltic and Caspian seas. While Caspian business is still developing, Baltic business is showing greater stability and is becoming an important indicat...
Market Commentary: CBOT Rallies as Crop Ratings Fall and Wheat Planting Stalls
What You Need to Know Today: U.S. corn condition ratings took a surprise turn for the worse in Monday’s report, with 54 percent rated good/excellent (down 3 percent). Dry weather in the U.S. Wheat Belt is stalling planting and causing concerns for the 2027 crop, in turn boosting futures...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.08/bushel, up $0.1075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.0425/bushel, up $0.12 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.03/bushel, up $0.2225 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $354.8/short ton, up $7.7 from ye...
Understanding the Difference Between Export Inspections and Export Sales
Key Takeaways: Export sales measure new commitments for future delivery, while export inspections provide a timelier gauge of grain that is physically moving through the export system. Sales and inspections often diverge from week to week because they measure different stages of the export pro...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Sri Lanka poultry producer associations say that the delay in approving maize imports is pushing prices for poultry meat and eggs higher. Producers have had to use rice for feed rather than maize due to a lack of supply, and many...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.9725/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.9225/bushel, up $0.0925 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.8075/bushel, up $0.025 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $347.1/short ton, down $0.4...
Market Commentary: Global Grain Demand Grows; Brazil Election, Currency Swing Boosts Soybeans
What You Need to Know Today: The Brazilian real surged to start the week after a surprise election result in which right-wing Flavio Bolsonaro won the first round of the election. The swing in the U.S. dollar/Brazilian real (USD/BRL) exchange rate caused soybeans to jump sharply higher in earl...
Harvest Pressure: Why Grain Prices Often Weaken at Harvest
Key Takeaways: Harvest pressure is fundamentally a timing issue: supply arrives much faster than demand can adjust, creating temporary weakness that can occur across crops and regions. The intensity of that pressure depends less on crop size alone than on how quickly grain moves into the syste...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina Argentina’s wheat conditions improved following the latest round of rainfall. Around 34 percent of the crop is now at heading or later stages, with the first harvests starting in the north and early yields coming in above historical averages. The area rated Good to Excelle...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $4.9775/bushel, down $0.045 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.83/bushel, up $0.0025 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.7825/bushel, down $0.0575 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $347.5/short ton, down $5...
Market Commentary: Harvest Pressure Weighs on Grains, Diesel Could See Much-Needed Relief
What You Need to Know Today: The G7 agreed to release 100 million barrels of crude oil and fuel reserves over four months, with a substantial diesel release front-loaded into the first 20 days. The announcement initially pushed crude oil lower on Friday, although it later recovered a portion o...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a slight net seller across agricultural markets for the second straight week, selling a net 63,000 contracts through Tuesday’s reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position to 954,000 contracts. Despite the modest overall selling, soymeal reached a new r...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.0225/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.8275/bushel, up $0.07 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.84/bushel, down $0.09 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $353.3/short ton, down $3.6 from...
Market Commentary: Drier Weather Could Accelerate Soybean Harvest
What You Need to Know Today: A drier early-October forecast should help harvest accelerate across areas of the western Corn Belt that have been running behind, adding pressure to soybeans and soymeal today as concerns over near-term physical tightness begin to ease. Markets are still digesting...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.0075/bushel, down $0.2125 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.7575/bushel, down $0.17 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.93/bushel, down $0.0475 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $356.9/short ton, down $2...
Market Commentary: Quarter & Month End Reality Checks
Markets are getting a quarter-end reality check as September comes to a close. Growth, inflation and interest rates remain central to the macro outlook, while tight diesel supplies keep pressure on the cost of moving goods. States are stepping in with relief, but policy changes alone cannot reb...
Higher Corn Stocks Contrast with Tighter Soybean Supplies
Key Takeaways: 1 September corn stocks totaled 2.095 billion bushels, 171 million above expectations and 544 million above last year, providing additional cushion for the 2026/27 balance sheet and potentially adding near-term pressure to prices. June-August corn disappearance increased just 10...
Black Sea Regional Analysis
Russian Grain Markets: 21–25 September 2026 During the third week of September, the Russian grain market remained bearish. For the first time since 2018, average 3rd-grade milling wheat prices dropped below RUB 10,000/t. This poses a serious threat to the Russian agricultural sector, as l...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.22/bushel, down $0.01 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.9275/bushel, up $0.04 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.9775/bushel, up $0.095 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $359/short ton, down $0.4 from y...
Market Commentary: Wet Midwest Weather, Grain Stocks Positioning Support CBOT
What You Need to Know Today: CBOT markets pared Monday’s sharp losses as traders booked short profits and adjusted positions ahead of the Grain Stocks report that USDA will release Wednesday afternoon. The 7-day QPF forecast from NOAA now shows heavy rain across the central and western C...
How Comparative Advantage Shapes Global Trade
Key Takeaways: Comparative advantage encourages countries to specialize in goods they can produce at a lower opportunity cost and rely on trade for others. Differences in climate, land, infrastructure, and technology help determine where agricultural commodities can be produced most efficientl...
Middle East, Mediterranean, and Africa Regional Analysis
Mediterranean/Middle East/North Africa/Africa – MEA Region Iran is reported to have completed its rail link from the border with Afghanistan to the Iranian port of Chabahar on the Gulf of Oman — the link is expected to be fully operational in early 2027. This will be Afghanistan&rsq...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.23/bushel, down $0.0525 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $6.8875/bushel, down $0.145 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $12.8825/bushel, down $0.3075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $359.4/short ton, down $...
Market Commentary: Everything but Soybeans
What You Need to Know Today: Last week’s Trump-Xi meetings included China agreeing to roll back $60 billion in tariffs on a huge swath of U.S. ag products, just notably not soybeans. The exclusion of soybeans from the tariff-reduction list means China’s state-run importers COFCO an...
U.S.-China Deal Delivers Tariff Relief, but Little for Soybeans
Key Takeaways: The U.S.-China agreement lowers tariffs on several U.S. agricultural products, but the lack of additional soybean commitments or greater certainty surrounding China’s existing 25 MMT purchase pledge made the deal a slight disappointment. Lower tariffs on U.S. corn are unli...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Wheat Argentina Wheat crop conditions remain broadly favorable despite a week marked by frost and localized hailstorms. Currently, 94.6 percent of the crop is rated Normal to Excellent. The most severe storms were reported in central-northern Córdoba and central-eastern Entre Ríos...
Market Commentary: U.S.-China Talks Leave Markets Waiting for More
What You Need to Know Today: Headlines emerging from negotiations between President Trump and President Xi were relatively limited, with a more substantive announcement expected Monday. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer indicated that additional details related to agricultural trade cou...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.2825/bushel, up $0.0075 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.0325/bushel, down $0.0375 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.19/bushel, up $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $371/short ton, down $1.4 fr...
CFTC COT Report Analysis
Managed money was a slight net seller across agricultural markets for the second straight week, selling a net 3,200 contracts through Tuesday’s reporting deadline and reducing the combined net-long position to 1.017 million contracts. Despite the modest overall selling, soybeans and soyme...
Summary of Futures
Dec 26 Corn closed at $5.275/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Wheat closed at $7.07/bushel, down $0.015 from yesterday's close. Nov 26 Soybeans closed at $13.175/bushel, down $0.005 from yesterday's close. Dec 26 Soymeal closed at $372.4/short ton, up $1.8 fr...
Market Commentary: Markets Await Xi-Trump Meeting Outcome, Export Sales Disappoint
What You Need to Know Today: Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived at the White House today as part of a highly anticipated three-day visit to the United States, marking his first visit to Washington in eleven years. Trade is expected to feature prominently in discussions with President Trump,...
The Farm at the Edge of the World: American Agriculture and a Global Reckoning
Key Takeaways: The United States shifted from a decades-long agricultural trade surplus to a growing deficit, reaching roughly forty-one to forty-four billion dollars in recent fiscal years, a structural change rather than a cyclical dip. Brazil has overtaken the United States as the leading s...