The fundamental soybean supply/demand outlook has fallen into a classic tug-of-war between competing bullish and bearish factors, which makes forecasting the coming price action in the soybean futures market a highly risky proposition – even more so than usual. On the bullish side, there is the impact of the Argentine drought on that country’s soybean crop. USDA estimated that production at 47 MMT in the March WASDE, far below the 57.8 MMT in 2016/17. Private estimates have now fallen to 40 MMT or less, and USDA will certainly sharply cut its next projection in the 10 April WASDE. The small Argentine crop will have a major effect on trade flows of soymeal and soyoil as well as soybeans. Adding more bullish fuel is the USDA/NASS...