U.S. wheat futures markets continue to trade in a relatively narrow range that is also near the bottom of a longer term-range (see the Chicago wheat chart below).
Wheat markets should eventually break out of this bearish pattern for a number of fundamental reasons. USDA has been very slow to reduce 2018 world wheat production even though virtually every private analyst and several foreign government groups are using smaller numbers. It did make a few minor adjustments in yesterday’s reports, but those are still not enough (in our opinion). The table below compares USDA’s 2017/18 numbers for the major wheat-exporting countries with its forecast and that of WPI for 2018/19.
WPI’s lower production and export numbers for...
What You Need to Know Today: As was widely expected, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75–4.00 percent, its first rate increase since 2023, as policymakers respond to persistent inflation pressures. The Fed also signaled that additi...
Key Takeaways: USDA data access is equal; the ability to use it is not. Larger operations can afford experts who turn public reports into business decisions. Analytical capacity is the true advantage. Forecasts matter only when converted into profit, purchasing, and risk-management decisions...
Russian Grain Markets: 7–11 September 2026 During the first week of September, the Russian grain market remained volatile but predominantly bearish. Among the few commodities that continued to show a bullish trend was rye, which is in short supply this year and has few offers available. I...
