World Perspectives
soy-oilseeds

China’s Soybean Stocks versus U.S. Exports

Can China use its large soybean stocks to punish the U.S. in a soybean trade war? Maybe, but it will be very difficult to do so.  Recently, some analysts pointed out that China has 20 MMT of soybean stocks it can use to avoid importing U.S. soybeans in the event this U.S.-China soybean tariff kerfuffle actually sticks. That line of thinking has both merits and flaws. True, China has 20.6 MMT of soybeans sitting around that equate to 18.6 percent of its annual use. Those stocks, however, are of questionable quality, and an 18.6 percent ending stocks/use ratio really isn’t that big. These are unlike China’s wheat stocks ,which account for something like half the world’s ending stocks.  But let’s explore th...

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feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Falls as Big Crops Get Bigger

The CBOT was mostly bearish on Friday under the primary theme that big crops get bigger. That is true of Brazil’s safrinha production, the outlook for which CONAB raised yesterday, and Argentina’s soybean crop per the Rosario Grains Exchange’s latest estimates. Similarly, whea...

U.S. Agriculture Crisis

U.S. farmers’ export markets were challenging before the trade war, and they are not coming back. It is time for Plan B. The trade agreement still being negotiated with the United Kingdom will supposedly allow U.S. beef producers to fill up to 1.5 percent of the British market. Except the...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.435/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close.  Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.25/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close.  Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close.  Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $291.9/short ton, down $4.5 f...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Market Commentary: CBOT Falls as Big Crops Get Bigger

The CBOT was mostly bearish on Friday under the primary theme that big crops get bigger. That is true of Brazil’s safrinha production, the outlook for which CONAB raised yesterday, and Argentina’s soybean crop per the Rosario Grains Exchange’s latest estimates. Similarly, whea...

U.S. Agriculture Crisis

U.S. farmers’ export markets were challenging before the trade war, and they are not coming back. It is time for Plan B. The trade agreement still being negotiated with the United Kingdom will supposedly allow U.S. beef producers to fill up to 1.5 percent of the British market. Except the...

feed-grains soy-oilseeds wheat

Summary of Futures

Jul 25 Corn closed at $4.435/bushel, down $0.05 from yesterday's close.  Jul 25 Wheat closed at $5.25/bushel, down $0.0775 from yesterday's close.  Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $10.5/bushel, down $0.0125 from yesterday's close.  Jul 25 Soymeal closed at $291.9/short ton, down $4.5 f...

biofuel

Policy Quick Hits

The following is a rundown of some key issues impacting agriculture: Reconciliation: The reconciliation bill passed through the Agriculture Committee on a party line vote, 29 to 25. All the amendments offered also passed by the same party line vote. The bill would cut the Supplemental Nutrition...

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From WPI Consulting

Forecasting developments in production agriculture

On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.

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