An erstwhile wise man once observed that everything in life is cyclical. We are not sure how inclusive the use of the word "everything" was intended, but those of us involved with commodities and commodity markets are certainly familiar with cycles. Thus, we noted with interest an article in yesterday's issue of The Wall Street Journal suggested another kind of cyclical movement is underway. The article highlights the flow of investment money out of funds that replicate the price action of a specifically selected, arbitrarily weighted group of commodities: the infamous index funds.Simply put, index funds mimic a specific commodity index by holding long positions in each of the commodities included in the index in volumes that reflect the...
Key Takeaways: Brazil confirmed a Newcastle disease outbreak at a commercial turkey farm in Santa Catarina on 18 October, raising concerns about potential disruptions to poultry exports despite the outbreak being confined to a single facility thus far. Mexico and Malaysia have imposed nationwi...
What You Need to Know Today: Harvest pressure in the U.S. sent corn and soybeans lower as supplies increased and there were signs USDA’s upward revisions to yields in the October WASDE could be close to right. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalated over the weekend, with Ukrai...
Last week, September inflation reports showed that the Producer Price Index rose 1.3 percent, far ahead of the 0.6 percent consensus expectation, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.6 percent, in line with expectations. However, September also marked the 66th consecutive month that both...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.