The USDA's Outlook Conference is underway today. As usual, there are speeches and sessions covering a multitude of wide-ranging topics. Those of the greatest immediate interest to today's grain and soy markets concern USDA's projection of U.S. crop production prospects for the upcoming 2012/13 year and the related topics of demand and prices. USDA is more or less tied to using trend line yields in its calculations of production unless there is some strong reason to deviate from it weeks before spring planting begins. Trend line yields necessarily assume reasonably good weather during planting, the growing season and harvesting. Consequently, it is USDA's planted acreage projections that draw the most attention. Assuming USDA's projections...
What You Need to Know Today: Commodities were mostly lower across the board today after yesterday’s Federal Reserve meeting hinted at a potential interest rate hike later in 2026. The dollar index reached its highest level in over a year, and a strong dollar makes U.S. agricultural expor...
Tomorrow is the Juneteenth federal holiday, and the USDA, along with the rest of the federal government and the CME, will be closed, so the monthly Cattle on Feed report was released a day early. The total number of cattle on feed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity on 1 June amounted...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.